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Modeling factions for “effects based operations”: part I—leaders and followers

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Listed:
  • Barry G. Silverman

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Gnana Bharathy

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Benjamin Nye

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Roy J. Eidelson

    (University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

This paper presents a synthetic approach for generating role playing simulation games intended to support analysts (and trainees) interested in testing alternative competing courses of action (operations) and discovering what effects they are likely to precipitate in potential ethno-political conflict situations. Simulated leaders and followers capable of playing these games are implemented in a cognitive modeling framework, called PMFserv, which covers value systems, personality and cultural factors, emotions, relationships, perception, stress/coping style and decision making. Of direct interest, as Sect. 1.1 explains, is mathematical representation and synthesis of best-of-breed behavioral science models within this framework to reduce dimensionality and to improve the realism and internal validity of the agent implementations. Sections 2 and 3 present this for leader profiling instruments and group membership decision-making, respectively. Section 4 serves as an existence proof that the framework has generated several training and analysis tools, and Sect. 5 concludes with lessons learned. Part II turns to the question of assessment of the synthesis and its usage in course of action studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Barry G. Silverman & Gnana Bharathy & Benjamin Nye & Roy J. Eidelson, 2007. "Modeling factions for “effects based operations”: part I—leaders and followers," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 379-406, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:comaot:v:13:y:2007:i:4:d:10.1007_s10588-007-9017-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10588-007-9017-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Green, Kesten C., 2002. "Forecasting decisions in conflict situations: a comparison of game theory, role-playing, and unaided judgement," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 321-344.
    2. Armstrong, J. Scott, 2002. "Assessing game theory, role playing, and unaided judgment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 345-352.
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    Cited by:

    1. Barry G. Silverman & Daniel M. Silverman & Gnana Bharathy & Nathan Weyer & William R. Tam, 2021. "StateSim: lessons learned from 20 years of a country modeling and simulation toolset," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 231-263, September.

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