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Trend analysis of the rainfall erosivity index at different time scales in Iran

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  • Seyed Sadeghi
  • Zeinab Hazbavi

Abstract

The minute study of the magnitude of changeability and the trend of the rainfall erosivity index has not been taken carried out yet in Iran. The present research therefore aimed to analyze the trends of the rainfall erosivity index as an initial step in the study of the consequences of climatic change on soil environments. The trend analyses were done at three time scales, viz., monthly, seasonal and annual, by the Mann–Kendall (M–K) nonparametric statistical test. The study was conducted for 18 synoptic stations distributed throughout Iran with a 23-year (1970–1992) common data period. The results of the application of the M–K test considering the weighted area on a monthly basis showed that all months except August and December had decreasing trends in the rainfall erosivity index for the study period, while only June (p value = 0.06) and November (p value = 0.01) had a significant decreasing trend in the rainfall erosivity index at a confidence level beyond 94 %. According to the results, there was also a small general decreasing trend in the seasonal rainfall erosivity index in all time series, but not all were statistically significant. The result of the M–K test ultimately verified a significant trend in the annual rainfall erosivity index for the entire country with respective p, Kendall’s statistic and Kendall’s tau values of 0.042, −73 and −0.316. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Seyed Sadeghi & Zeinab Hazbavi, 2015. "Trend analysis of the rainfall erosivity index at different time scales in Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(1), pages 383-404, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:77:y:2015:i:1:p:383-404
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1607-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Saeed Soltani & R. Saboohi & L. Yaghmaei, 2012. "Rainfall and rainy days trend in Iran," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(1), pages 187-213, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jin Huang & Fangmin Zhang & Zhenghua Hu & Shutao Chen, 2019. "Climatology of rainfall erosivity during 1961–2012 in Jiangsu Province, southeast China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 98(3), pages 1155-1168, September.
    2. Seyed Hamidreza Sadeghi & Mohsen Zabihi & Mehdi Vafakhah & Zeinab Hazbavi, 2017. "Spatiotemporal mapping of rainfall erosivity index for different return periods in Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(1), pages 35-56, May.
    3. Sakineh Khansalari & Atefeh Mohammadi, 2024. "Probabilistic projection of extreme precipitation changes over Iran by the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(7), pages 1-26, July.

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