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Attribution of the heavy rainfall events leading to severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021

Author

Listed:
  • Jordis S. Tradowsky

    (Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)
    Bodeker Scientific)

  • Sjoukje Y. Philip

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))

  • Frank Kreienkamp

    (Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD))

  • Sarah F. Kew

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))

  • Philip Lorenz

    (Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD))

  • Julie Arrighi

    (Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre
    University of Twente
    American Red Cross)

  • Thomas Bettmann

    (State Environmental Agency Rhineland-Palatinate)

  • Steven Caluwaerts

    (Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium
    University of Ghent)

  • Steven C. Chan

    (Met Office Hadley Centre
    Newcastle University)

  • Lesley De Cruz

    (Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium
    Vrije Universiteit Brussel)

  • Hylke de Vries

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))

  • Norbert Demuth

    (State Environmental Agency Rhineland-Palatinate)

  • Andrew Ferrone

    (Administration of Technical Agricultural Services)

  • Erich M. Fischer

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Hayley J. Fowler

    (Newcastle University)

  • Klaus Goergen

    (Forschungszentrum Jülich)

  • Dorothy Heinrich

    (Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre)

  • Yvonne Henrichs

    (State Environmental Agency Rhineland-Palatinate)

  • Frank Kaspar

    (Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD))

  • Geert Lenderink

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))

  • Enno Nilson

    (Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG))

  • Friederike E. L. Otto

    (Imperial College)

  • Francesco Ragone

    (Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium
    Université Catholique de Louvain)

  • Sonia I. Seneviratne

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Roop K. Singh

    (Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre)

  • Amalie Skålevåg

    (University of Potsdam)

  • Piet Termonia

    (Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium
    University of Ghent)

  • Lisa Thalheimer

    (University of Oxford
    Princeton University)

  • Maarten van Aalst

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
    Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre
    University of Twente
    Columbia University)

  • Joris Van den Bergh

    (Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium)

  • Hans Van de Vyver

    (Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium)

  • Stéphane Vannitsem

    (Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium)

  • Geert Jan van Oldenborgh

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
    University of Oxford)

  • Bert Van Schaeybroeck

    (Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium)

  • Robert Vautard

    (CNRS)

  • Demi Vonk

    (University of Twente)

  • Niko Wanders

    (Utrecht University)

Abstract

In July 2021 extreme rainfall across Western Europe caused severe flooding and substantial impacts, including over 200 fatalities and extensive infrastructure damage within Germany and the Benelux countries. After the event, a hydrological assessment and a probabilistic event attribution analysis of rainfall data were initiated and complemented by discussing the vulnerability and exposure context. The global mean surface temperature (GMST) served as a covariate in a generalised extreme value distribution fitted to observational and model data, exploiting the dependence on GMST to estimate how anthropogenic climate change affects the likelihood and severity of extreme events. Rainfall accumulations in Ahr/Erft and the Belgian Meuse catchment vastly exceeded previous observed records. In regions of that limited size the robust estimation of return values and the detection and attribution of rainfall trends are challenging. However, for the larger Western European region it was found that, under current climate conditions, on average one rainfall event of this magnitude can be expected every 400 years at any given location. Consequently, within the entire region, events of similar magnitude are expected to occur more frequently than once in 400 years. Anthropogenic climate change has already increased the intensity of the maximum 1-day rainfall event in the summer season by 3–19 %. The likelihood of such an event to occur today compared to a 1.2 $$^{\circ }$$ ∘ C cooler climate has increased by a factor of 1.2–9. Models indicate that intensity and frequency of such events will further increase with future global warming. While attribution of small-scale events remains challenging, this study shows that there is a robust increase in the likelihood and severity of rainfall events such as the ones causing extreme impacts in July 2021 when considering a larger region.

Suggested Citation

  • Jordis S. Tradowsky & Sjoukje Y. Philip & Frank Kreienkamp & Sarah F. Kew & Philip Lorenz & Julie Arrighi & Thomas Bettmann & Steven Caluwaerts & Steven C. Chan & Lesley De Cruz & Hylke de Vries & Nor, 2023. "Attribution of the heavy rainfall events leading to severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(7), pages 1-38, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:176:y:2023:i:7:d:10.1007_s10584-023-03502-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03502-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dianne Lowe & Kristie L. Ebi & Bertil Forsberg, 2013. "Factors Increasing Vulnerability to Health Effects before, during and after Floods," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-53, December.
    2. Markku Rummukainen, 2016. "Added value in regional climate modeling," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(1), pages 145-159, January.
    3. Geert Jan Oldenborgh & Karin Wiel & Sarah Kew & Sjoukje Philip & Friederike Otto & Robert Vautard & Andrew King & Fraser Lott & Julie Arrighi & Roop Singh & Maarten Aalst, 2021. "Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-27, May.
    4. Sihan Li & Friederike E. L. Otto, 2022. "The role of human-induced climate change in heavy rainfall events such as the one associated with Typhoon Hagibis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-19, May.
    5. E. M. Fischer & R. Knutti, 2016. "Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(11), pages 986-991, November.
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