IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v177y2024i1d10.1007_s10584-023-03664-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Interplay between climate change and climate variability: the 2022 drought in Central South America

Author

Listed:
  • Paola A. Arias

    (Universidad de Antioquia)

  • Juan Antonio Rivera

    (Instituto Argentino de Nivología, CCT CONICET)

  • Anna A. Sörensson

    (Universidad de Buenos Aires
    Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y La Atmósfera
    Instituto Franco-Argentino Para El Estudio del Clima y Sus Impactos (IRL 3351 IFAECI))

  • Mariam Zachariah

    (Grantham Institute, Imperial College London)

  • Clair Barnes

    (Grantham Institute, Imperial College London)

  • Sjoukje Philip

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))

  • Sarah Kew

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))

  • Robert Vautard

    (Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace)

  • Gerbrand Koren

    (Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University)

  • Izidine Pinto

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))

  • Maja Vahlberg

    (Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre)

  • Roop Singh

    (Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre)

  • Emmanuel Raju

    (Global Health Section & Copenhagen Centre for Disaster Research)

  • Sihan Li

    (University of Sheffield)

  • Wenchang Yang

    (Princeton University)

  • Gabriel A. Vecchi

    (Princeton University
    High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University)

  • Friederike E. L. Otto

    (Grantham Institute, Imperial College London)

Abstract

Since 2019, Central South America (CSA) has been reeling under drought conditions, with the last 4 months of 2022 receiving only 44% of the average total precipitation. Simultaneously to the drought, a series of record-breaking heat waves has affected the region. The rainfall deficit during October–November-December (OND) is highly correlated with the Niño3.4 index, indicating that the OND 2022 rainfall deficit is partly driven by La Niña, as observed in previous droughts in this region. To identify whether human-induced climate change was also a driver of the OND 2022 rainfall deficit, we analysed precipitation over the most impacted region. Our findings revealed a pattern of decreased rainfall over the past 40 years, although we cannot definitively conclude whether this trend exceeds what would be expected from natural variations. To clarify if this trend can be attributed to climate change, we looked at 1-in-20-year low rainfall events over the same region in climate models. The models show that the severity of low rainfall events decreases (i.e. they become wetter, the opposite of the trend observed in most weather records), although this trend is again not significant and is compatible with natural variability. Therefore, we cannot attribute the low rainfall to climate change. Moreover, our analysis of effective precipitation potential (evapotranspiration minus rainfall) shows that, in climate models, the increase in temperature does partly compensate for the increase in rainfall but only to offset the wetting, and does not lead to a significant climate change signal in effective precipitation. However, higher temperatures in the region, which have been attributed to climate change, decreased water availability in the models in late 2022, indicating that climate change probably reduced water availability over this period also in the observations, increasing agricultural drought, although this study did not quantify this effect. This means that even though the reduced rainfall is within the natural variability, the consequences of drought are becoming more severe due to the strong increase in extreme heat. The case of the OND 2022 rainfall deficit and the ongoing drought in CSA is a clear example of the interplay between climate variability and human-induced climate change. This shows the importance of considering not only those aspects associated with climate change but also climate variability in order to understand and attribute particular events or trends at the regional level.

Suggested Citation

  • Paola A. Arias & Juan Antonio Rivera & Anna A. Sörensson & Mariam Zachariah & Clair Barnes & Sjoukje Philip & Sarah Kew & Robert Vautard & Gerbrand Koren & Izidine Pinto & Maja Vahlberg & Roop Singh &, 2024. "Interplay between climate change and climate variability: the 2022 drought in Central South America," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 1-22, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:177:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-023-03664-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03664-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-023-03664-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-023-03664-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Geert Jan Oldenborgh & Karin Wiel & Sarah Kew & Sjoukje Philip & Friederike Otto & Robert Vautard & Andrew King & Fraser Lott & Julie Arrighi & Roop Singh & Maarten Aalst, 2021. "Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-27, May.
    2. Nicola Jones, 2022. "Rare ‘triple’ La Niña climate event looks likely — what does the future hold?," Nature, Nature, vol. 607(7917), pages 21-21, July.
    3. Sihan Li & Friederike E. L. Otto, 2022. "The role of human-induced climate change in heavy rainfall events such as the one associated with Typhoon Hagibis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-19, May.
    4. Sihan Li & Friederike E. L. Otto, 2022. "Correction to: The role of human-induced climate change in heavy rainfall events such as the one associated with Typhoon Hagibis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-1, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mohammad Tavosi & Mehdi Vafakhah & Hengameh Shekohideh & Seyed Hamidreza Sadeghi & Vahid Moosavi & Ziyan Zheng & Qing Yang, 2024. "Rainfall Extreme Indicators Trend and Meteorological Drought Changes Under Climate Change Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(11), pages 4393-4413, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jordis S. Tradowsky & Sjoukje Y. Philip & Frank Kreienkamp & Sarah F. Kew & Philip Lorenz & Julie Arrighi & Thomas Bettmann & Steven Caluwaerts & Steven C. Chan & Lesley De Cruz & Hylke de Vries & Nor, 2023. "Attribution of the heavy rainfall events leading to severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(7), pages 1-38, July.
    2. Patrick T. Brown, 2023. "When the fraction of attributable risk does not inform the impact associated with anthropogenic climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(8), pages 1-11, August.
    3. Vikki Thompson & Dann Mitchell & Gabriele C. Hegerl & Matthew Collins & Nicholas J. Leach & Julia M. Slingo, 2023. "The most at-risk regions in the world for high-impact heatwaves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
    4. Guy Jackson, 2023. "Environmental subjectivities and experiences of climate extreme-driven loss and damage in northern Australia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(7), pages 1-21, July.
    5. Apurba Roy & Ilan Noy, 2023. "Impact of extratropical cyclones, floods, and wildfires on firms’ financial performance in New Zealand," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 25(4), pages 493-574, October.
    6. Henrik Thorén & Johannes Persson & Lennart Olsson, 2021. "A pluralist approach to epistemic dilemmas in event attribution science," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(1), pages 1-17, November.
    7. Rachel H. White & Sam Anderson & James F. Booth & Ginni Braich & Christina Draeger & Cuiyi Fei & Christopher D. G. Harley & Sarah B. Henderson & Matthias Jakob & Carie-Ann Lau & Lualawi Mareshet Admas, 2023. "The unprecedented Pacific Northwest heatwave of June 2021," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-20, December.
    8. Theodore G. Shepherd & Elisabeth A. Lloyd, 2021. "Meaningful climate science," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(1), pages 1-16, November.
    9. Rebecca Newman & Ilan Noy, 2023. "The global costs of extreme weather that are attributable to climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    10. Ben Clarke & Friederike Otto & Richard Jones, 2023. "When don’t we need a new extreme event attribution study?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(5), pages 1-19, May.
    11. Sihan Li & Friederike E. L. Otto, 2022. "The role of human-induced climate change in heavy rainfall events such as the one associated with Typhoon Hagibis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-19, May.
    12. Bijan Fallah & Masoud Rostami, 2024. "Exploring the impact of the recent global warming on extreme weather events in Central Asia using the counterfactual climate data ATTRICI v1.1," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(5), pages 1-20, May.
    13. Zhongwei Liu & Jonathan M. Eden & Bastien Dieppois & Matthew Blackett, 2022. "A global view of observed changes in fire weather extremes: uncertainties and attribution to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-20, July.
    14. Wouter Lammers & Valérie Pattyn & Sacha Ferrari & Sylvia Wenmackers & Steven Van de Walle, 2024. "Evidence for policy-makers: A matter of timing and certainty?," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 57(1), pages 171-191, March.
    15. John McClure & Ilan Noy & Yoshi Kashima & Taciano L. Milfont, 2022. "Attributions for extreme weather events: science and the people," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(3), pages 1-17, October.
    16. Friederike E. L. Otto & Petra Minnerop & Emmanuel Raju & Luke J. Harrington & Rupert F. Stuart‐Smith & Emily Boyd & Rachel James & Richard Jones & Kristian C. Lauta, 2022. "Causality and the fate of climate litigation: The role of the social superstructure narrative," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 13(5), pages 736-750, November.
    17. Diekert, Florian & Goeschl, Timo & König-Kersting, Christian, 2024. "The Behavioral Economics of Extreme Event Attribution," Working Papers 0741, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    18. Henri F. Drake & Geoffrey Henderson, 2022. "A defense of usable climate mitigation science: how science can contribute to social movements," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-18, May.
    19. Juan Antonio Rivera & Paola A. Arias & Anna A. Sörensson & Mariam Zachariah & Clair Barnes & Sjoukje Philip & Sarah Kew & Robert Vautard & Gerbrand Koren & Izidine Pinto & Maja Vahlberg & Roop Singh &, 2023. "2022 early-summer heatwave in Southern South America: 60 times more likely due to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(8), pages 1-23, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:177:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-023-03664-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.