IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v174y2022i1d10.1007_s10584-022-03359-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantification of meteorological drought risks between 1.5 °C and 4 °C of global warming in six countries

Author

Listed:
  • Jeff Price

    (University of East Anglia)

  • Rachel Warren

    (University of East Anglia)

  • Nicole Forstenhäusler

    (University of East Anglia)

  • Craig Wallace

    (University of East Anglia)

  • Rhosanna Jenkins

    (University of East Anglia)

  • Timothy J. Osborn

    (University of East Anglia)

  • D. P. Vuuren

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

Abstract

We quantify the projected impacts of alternative levels of global warming upon the probability and length of severe drought in six countries (China, Brazil, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana and India). This includes an examination of different land cover classes, and a calculation of the proportion of population in 2100 (SSP2) at exposed to severe drought lasting longer than one year. Current pledges for climate change mitigation, which are projected to still result in global warming levels of 3 °C or more, would impact all of the countries in this study. For example, with 3 °C warming, more than 50% of the agricultural area in each country is projected to be exposed to severe droughts of longer than one year in a 30-year period. Using standard population projections, it is estimated that 80%-100% of the population in Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia and Ghana (and nearly 50% of the population of India) are projected to be exposed to a severe drought lasting one year or longer in a 30-year period. In contrast, we find that meeting the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, that is limiting warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, is projected to greatly benefit all of the countries in this study, greatly reducing exposure to severe drought for large percentages of the population and in all major land cover classes, with Egypt potentially benefiting the most.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeff Price & Rachel Warren & Nicole Forstenhäusler & Craig Wallace & Rhosanna Jenkins & Timothy J. Osborn & D. P. Vuuren, 2022. "Quantification of meteorological drought risks between 1.5 °C and 4 °C of global warming in six countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 1-16, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:174:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-022-03359-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03359-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-022-03359-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-022-03359-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claudia Tebaldi & Julie Arblaster, 2014. "Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 459-471, February.
    2. Timothy Osborn & Craig Wallace & Ian Harris & Thomas Melvin, 2016. "Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 353-369, February.
    3. Timothy J. Osborn & Craig J. Wallace & Ian C. Harris & Thomas M. Melvin, 2016. "Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 353-369, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yi He & Desmond Manful & Rachel Warren & Nicole Forstenhäusler & Timothy J. Osborn & Jeff Price & Rhosanna Jenkins & Craig Wallace & Dai Yamazaki, 2022. "Quantification of impacts between 1.5 and 4 °C of global warming on flooding risks in six countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-21, January.
    2. Nigel W. Arnell & Jason A. Lowe & Ben Lloyd-Hughes & Timothy J. Osborn, 2018. "The impacts avoided with a 1.5 °C climate target: a global and regional assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 61-76, March.
    3. Rachel Warren & Oliver Andrews & Sally Brown & Felipe J. Colón-González & Nicole Forstenhäusler & David E. H. J. Gernaat & P. Goodwin & Ian Harris & Yi He & Chris Hope & Desmond Manful & Timothy J. Os, 2022. "Quantifying risks avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-16, June.
    4. Daoping Wang & Katie Jenkins & Nicole Forstenhäusler & Tianyang Lei & Jeff Price & Rachel Warren & Rhosanna Jenkins & Dabo Guan, 2021. "Economic impacts of climate-induced crop yield changes: evidence from agri-food industries in six countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-19, June.
    5. N. W. Arnell & J. A. Lowe & A. J. Challinor & T. J. Osborn, 2019. "Global and regional impacts of climate change at different levels of global temperature increase," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 377-391, August.
    6. R. Warren & J. Price & J. VanDerWal & S. Cornelius & H. Sohl, 2018. "The implications of the United Nations Paris Agreement on climate change for globally significant biodiversity areas," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 395-409, April.
    7. Matthew A. Thomas & Ting Lin, 2018. "A dual model for emulation of thermosteric and dynamic sea-level change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 311-324, May.
    8. Timothy Osborn & Craig Wallace & Ian Harris & Thomas Melvin, 2016. "Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 353-369, February.
    9. Christopher W. Callahan & Justin S. Mankin, 2022. "National attribution of historical climate damages," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-19, June.
    10. Claudia Tebaldi & Michael F. Wehner, 2018. "Benefits of mitigation for future heat extremes under RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 349-361, February.
    11. Akemi Tanaka & Kiyoshi Takahashi & Hideo Shiogama & Naota Hanasaki & Yoshimitsu Masaki & Akihiko Ito & Hibiki Noda & Yasuaki Hijioka & Seita Emori, 2017. "On the scaling of climate impact indicators with global mean temperature increase: a case study of terrestrial ecosystems and water resources," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(4), pages 775-782, April.
    12. Yangyang Xu & Lei Lin, 2017. "Pattern scaling based projections for precipitation and potential evapotranspiration: sensitivity to composition of GHGs and aerosols forcing," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 635-647, February.
    13. Andrew Ciavarella & Daniel Cotterill & Peter Stott & Sarah Kew & Sjoukje Philip & Geert Jan Oldenborgh & Amalie Skålevåg & Philip Lorenz & Yoann Robin & Friederike Otto & Mathias Hauser & Sonia I. Sen, 2021. "Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-18, May.
    14. Stacey E. Alexeeff & Doug Nychka & Stephan R. Sain & Claudia Tebaldi, 2018. "Emulating mean patterns and variability of temperature across and within scenarios in anthropogenic climate change experiments," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 319-333, February.
    15. Jiang, Sijian & Deng, Xiangzheng & Liu, Gang & Zhang, Fan, 2021. "Climate change-induced economic impact assessment by parameterizing spatially heterogeneous CO2 distribution," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    16. Azaïs, Jean-Marc & Ribes, Aurélien, 2016. "Multivariate spline analysis for multiplicative models: Estimation, testing and application to climate change," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 38-53.
    17. Kotlikoff, Laurence & Kubler, Felix & Polbin, Andrey & Scheidegger, Simon, 2024. "Can today’s and tomorrow’s world uniformly gain from carbon taxation?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    18. Nigel Arnell & Simon Gosling, 2016. "The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 387-401, February.
    19. Timothy J. Osborn & Craig J. Wallace & Ian C. Harris & Thomas M. Melvin, 2016. "Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 353-369, February.
    20. Per Krusell & Tony Smith, 2022. "Climate Change Around the World," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2342, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:174:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-022-03359-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.