IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v172y2022i3d10.1007_s10584-022-03374-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Adaptive responses: the effects of temperature levels on residential electricity use in China

Author

Listed:
  • Meixuan Teng

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Key Laboratory of Energy Economics and Environmental Management)

  • Hua Liao

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Key Laboratory of Energy Economics and Environmental Management)

  • Paul J. Burke

    (Australian National University)

  • Tianqi Chen

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Key Laboratory of Energy Economics and Environmental Management)

  • Chen Zhang

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Institute of Technology
    Beijing Key Laboratory of Energy Economics and Environmental Management
    Chinese Academy of Science)

Abstract

Rising temperatures are likely to boost residential demand for electricity in warm locations for reasons including increased use of air conditioners, fans, and refrigeration. Yet precise effects may vary by geographical area and with socio-economic conditions. Knowledge on these effects in developing countries is limited due to data availability and reliability issues. Using a high-quality provincial-level monthly dataset for China and fixed-effect panel methods, we find a U-shaped and asymmetrical relationship between ambient temperature and monthly residential electricity use. An additional day with a maximum temperature exceeding 34 °C is on average associated with a 1.6% increase in that month’s per capita residential electricity use relative to if that day’s maximum temperature had been in the 22–26 °C range. The effect of an additional cold day is smaller. There are differences in effects for the south versus the north of China and for urban versus rural areas. Under a high global carbon dioxide emission trajectory, we estimate that expected temperature increases would lead to more than a 25% increase in residential electricity use in July in some provinces by the end of the century, holding other factors constant.

Suggested Citation

  • Meixuan Teng & Hua Liao & Paul J. Burke & Tianqi Chen & Chen Zhang, 2022. "Adaptive responses: the effects of temperature levels on residential electricity use in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-20, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:172:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-022-03374-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03374-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-022-03374-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-022-03374-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Susanna B. Berkouwer, 2020. "Electric Heating and the Effects of Temperature on Household Electricity Consumption in South Africa," The Energy Journal, , vol. 41(4), pages 209-230, July.
    2. Catherine Wolfram & Orie Shelef & Paul Gertler, 2012. "How Will Energy Demand Develop in the Developing World?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(1), pages 119-138, Winter.
    3. Jiyong Eom & Minwoo Hyun & Jaewoong Lee & Hyoseop Lee, 2020. "Increase in household energy consumption due to ambient air pollution," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 5(12), pages 976-984, December.
    4. Jing-Li Fan & Bao-Jun Tang & Hao Yu & Yun-Bing Hou & Yi-Ming Wei, 2015. "Impact of climatic factors on monthly electricity consumption of China’s sectors," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 2027-2037, January.
    5. Arellano, Manuel, 1993. "On the testing of correlated effects with panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1-2), pages 87-97, September.
    6. Solomon Hsiang & Robert E. Kopp, 2018. "An Economist's Guide to Climate Change Science," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 3-32, Fall.
    7. Mansur, Erin T. & Mendelsohn, Robert & Morrison, Wendy, 2008. "Climate change adaptation: A study of fuel choice and consumption in the US energy sector," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 175-193, March.
    8. Joshua Graff Zivin & Matthew Neidell, 2014. "Temperature and the Allocation of Time: Implications for Climate Change," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 1-26.
    9. Nathan W. Chan & Casey J. Wichman, 2020. "Climate Change and Recreation: Evidence from North American Cycling," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(1), pages 119-151, May.
    10. Bessec, Marie & Fouquau, Julien, 2008. "The non-linear link between electricity consumption and temperature in Europe: A threshold panel approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2705-2721, September.
    11. Maximilian Auffhammer & Anin Aroonruengsawat, 2011. "Simulating the impacts of climate change, prices and population on California’s residential electricity consumption," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 191-210, December.
    12. Lucas Bretschger & Karen Pittel, 2020. "Twenty Key Challenges in Environmental and Resource Economics," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 77(4), pages 725-750, December.
    13. Paul J. Burke & Ashani Abayasekara, 2018. "The Price Elasticity of Electricity Demand in the United States: A Three-Dimensional Analysis," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(2), pages 123-146, March.
    14. R. Jisung Park & Joshua Goodman & Michael Hurwitz & Jonathan Smith, 2020. "Heat and Learning," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 306-339, May.
    15. repec:dau:papers:123456789/8180 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    17. Yating Li & William A. Pizer & Libo Wu, 2019. "Climate change and residential electricity consumption in the Yangtze River Delta, China," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 116(2), pages 472-477, January.
    18. Gustafsson, Björn & LI, Shi & Sato, Hiroshi, 2014. "Data for studying earnings, the distribution of household income and poverty in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 419-431.
    19. Burke, M. & Craxton, M. & Kolstad, C.D. & Onda, C. & Allcott, H. & Baker, E. & Barrage, L. & Carson, R. & Gillingham, K. & Graff-Zivin, J. & Greenstone, M. & Hallegatte, S. & Hanemann, W.M. & Heal, G., 2016. "Opportunities for advances in climate change economics," ISU General Staff Papers 3565, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    20. Al-Bajjali, Saif Kayed & Shamayleh, Adel Yacoub, 2018. "Estimating the determinants of electricity consumption in Jordan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 1311-1320.
    21. Zhou, Shaojie & Teng, Fei, 2013. "Estimation of urban residential electricity demand in China using household survey data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 394-402.
    22. James McCulloch and Katja Ignatieva, 2020. "Intra-day Electricity Demand and Temperature," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 161-182.
    23. Fan, Maoyong & He, Guojun & Zhou, Maigeng, 2020. "The winter choke: Coal-Fired heating, air pollution, and mortality in China," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    24. Yee Yan, Yuk, 1998. "Climate and residential electricity consumption in Hong Kong," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-20.
    25. Tjørring, Lise & Jensen, Carsten Lynge & Hansen, Lars Gårn & Andersen, Laura Mørch, 2018. "Increasing the flexibility of electricity consumption in private households: Does gender matter?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 9-18.
    26. Auffhammer, Maximilian & Mansur, Erin T., 2014. "Measuring climatic impacts on energy consumption: A review of the empirical literature," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 522-530.
    27. Tol, Richard S.J. & Yohe, Gary W., 2009. "The Stern Review: A deconstruction," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1032-1040, March.
    28. Jose M. Garrido-Perez & David Barriopedro & Ricardo García-Herrera & Carlos Ordóñez, 2021. "Impact of climate change on Spanish electricity demand," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-18, April.
    29. Baxter, Lester W. & Calandri, Kevin, 1992. "Global warming and electricity demand : A study of California," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 233-244, March.
    30. Alan Barreca & Karen Clay & Olivier Deschenes & Michael Greenstone & Joseph S. Shapiro, 2016. "Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the US Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the Twentieth Century," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 105-159.
    31. Asadoorian, Malcolm O. & Eckaus, Richard S. & Schlosser, C. Adam, 2008. "Modeling climate feedbacks to electricity demand: The case of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1577-1602, July.
    32. Arik Levinson, 2016. "How Much Energy Do Building Energy Codes Save? Evidence from California Houses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 2867-2894, October.
    33. Maximilian Auffhammer, 2014. "Cooling China: The Weather Dependence of Air Conditioner Adoption," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 9(1), pages 70-84, March.
    34. Francisco Ralston Fonseca & Paulina Jaramillo & Mario Bergés & Edson Severnini, 2019. "Seasonal effects of climate change on intra-day electricity demand patterns," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 435-451, June.
    35. Wang, Jinxia & Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott & Zhang, Lijuan, 2008. "Can China continue feeding itself ? the impact of climate change on agriculture," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4470, The World Bank.
    36. Burke, M & Craxton, M & Kolstad, CD & Onda, C & Allcott, H & Baker, E & Barrage, L & Carson, R & Gillingham, K & Graf-Zivin, J & Greenstone, M & Hallegatte, S & Hanemann, WM & Heal, G & Hsiang, S & Jo, 2016. "Opportunities for advances in climate change economics," University of California at Santa Barbara, Recent Works in Economics qt4tc5d9pb, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    37. Edward Vine, 2012. "Adaptation of California’s electricity sector to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(1), pages 75-99, March.
    38. Yu, Xiumei & Lei, Xiaoyan & Wang, Min, 2019. "Temperature effects on mortality and household adaptation: Evidence from China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 195-212.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Jianglong & Yang, Lisha & Long, Houyin, 2018. "Climatic impacts on energy consumption: Intensive and extensive margins," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 332-343.
    2. Zhang, Shaohui & Guo, Qinxin & Smyth, Russell & Yao, Yao, 2022. "Extreme temperatures and residential electricity consumption: Evidence from Chinese households," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    3. Auffhammer, Maximilian, 2022. "Climate Adaptive Response Estimation: Short and long run impacts of climate change on residential electricity and natural gas consumption," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    4. Du, Kerui & Yu, Ying & Wei, Chu, 2020. "Climatic impact on China's residential electricity consumption: Does the income level matter?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    5. Li, Xue & Smyth, Russell & Xin, Guangyi & Yao, Yao, 2023. "Warmer temperatures and energy poverty: Evidence from Chinese households," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    6. Richard S.J. Tol, 2020. "The Economic Impact of Weather and Climate," Video Library 2094, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    7. Jiang, Lei & Yang, Linshuang & Wu, Qingyang & Zhang, Xinyue, 2024. "How does extreme heat affect carbon emission intensity? Evidence from county-level data in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    8. Zhang, Mingyang & Zhang, Kaiwen & Hu, Wuyang & Zhu, Bangzhu & Wang, Ping & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2020. "Exploring the climatic impacts on residential electricity consumption in Jiangsu, China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    9. Matthew Ranson & Lauren Morris & Alex Kats-Rubin, 2014. "Climate Change and Space Heating Energy Demand: A Review of the Literature," NCEE Working Paper Series 201407, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Dec 2014.
    10. Duan, Hongbo & Yuan, Deyu & Cai, Zongwu & Wang, Shouyang, 2022. "Valuing the impact of climate change on China’s economic growth," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 155-174.
    11. Mullins, Jamie T. & White, Corey, 2019. "Temperature and mental health: Evidence from the spectrum of mental health outcomes," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    12. Randazzo, Teresa & De Cian, Enrica & Mistry, Malcolm N., 2020. "Air conditioning and electricity expenditure: The role of climate in temperate countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 273-287.
    13. Joshua Graff Zivin & Matthew E. Kahn, 2016. "Industrial Productivity in a Hotter World: The Aggregate Implications of Heterogeneous Firm Investment in Air Conditioning," NBER Working Papers 22962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Wenz, Leonie, 2020. "The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    15. Lehr, Jakob & Rehdanz, Katrin, 2024. "The effect of temperature on energy related CO2 emissions and economic performance in German industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    16. Doremus, Jacqueline M. & Jacqz, Irene & Johnston, Sarah, 2022. "Sweating the energy bill: Extreme weather, poor households, and the energy spending gap," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    17. Dundas, Steven J. & von Haefen, Roger H., 2019. "The Effects of Weather on Recreational Fishing Demand and Adaptation: Implications for a Changing Climate," CEnREP Working Papers 283949, North Carolina State University, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    18. Chang, Jun-Jie & Mi, Zhifu & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2023. "Temperature and GDP: A review of climate econometrics analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 383-392.
    19. Steven J. Dundas & Roger H. von Haefen, 2020. "The Effects of Weather on Recreational Fishing Demand and Adaptation: Implications for a Changing Climate," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(2), pages 209-242.
    20. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:172:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-022-03374-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.