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Intra-day Electricity Demand and Temperature

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  • James McCulloch and Katja Ignatieva

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to explain the relationship between high frequency electricity demand, intra-day temperature variation and time. Using the Generalised Additive Model (GAM) framework we link high frequency (5-minute) aggregate electricity demand in Australia to the time of the day, time of the year and intra-day temperature. We document a strong relationship between high frequency electricity demand and intra-day temperature. We show a superior model fit when using Daylight Saving Time (DST), or clock time, instead of the standard (solar) time. We introduce the time weighted temperature model that captures instantaneous electricity demand sensitivity to temperature as a function of the human daily activity cycle, by assigning different temperature signal weighting based on the DST time. The results on DST and time weighted temperature modelling are novel in the literature and are important innovations in high frequency electricity demand forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • James McCulloch and Katja Ignatieva, 2020. "Intra-day Electricity Demand and Temperature," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 161-182.
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej41-3-ignatieva
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    Cited by:

    1. Meixuan Teng & Hua Liao & Paul J. Burke & Tianqi Chen & Chen Zhang, 2022. "Adaptive responses: the effects of temperature levels on residential electricity use in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-20, June.
    2. Jerzy Rembeza & Grzegorz Przekota, 2022. "Influence of the Industry’s Output on Electricity Prices: Comparison of the Nord Pool and HUPX Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-15, August.
    3. Takuji Matsumoto & Yuji Yamada, 2021. "Customized yet Standardized Temperature Derivatives: A Non-Parametric Approach with Suitable Basis Selection for Ensuring Robustness," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-24, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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