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Multi-model ensemble projections of soil moisture drought over North Africa and the Sahel region under 1.5, 2, and 3 °C global warming

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmed Elkouk

    (Ibn Zohr University
    Ibn Zohr University
    Michigan State University)

  • Zine El Abidine Morjani

    (Ibn Zohr University)

  • Yadu Pokhrel

    (Michigan State University)

  • Abdelghani Chehbouni

    (Université de Toulouse, CNRS, CNES, IRD
    Mohammed VI Polytechnic University)

  • Abdelfattah Sifeddine

    (IRD-Sorbonne Université, UMR LOCEAN (IRD, CNRS, Univ. Sorbonne, MNHN))

  • Stephan Thober

    (Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ)

  • Lhoussaine Bouchaou

    (Ibn Zohr University
    Mohammed VI Polytechnic University)

Abstract

The intensification of soil moisture drought events is an expected consequence of anthropogenic global warming. However, the implication of 1.5–3 °C global warming on these events remains unknown over North Africa and the Sahel region, where soil moisture plays a crucial role in food security that largely depends on rainfed agriculture. Here, using a multi-model ensemble from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b, we estimate the changes in the spatiotemporal characteristics of soil moisture drought events under increased global mean temperature. A 3 °C global warming results in multi-year (up to 19 years) mega-drought events over North Africa compared to a maximum drought duration of 12 years under the 1.5 °C Paris Agreement target. These events are projected to transform from historically severe droughts into exceptional droughts and extend over an area that is 32% larger under 3 °C compared to that under 1.5 °C. Global warming also leads to a high intensification of Sahelian drought extremes, in particular, their duration (from 24 to 82 months between 1.5 and 3 °C) over the western parts and their severity everywhere. Even though the results highlight substantial uncertainties arising from climate forcing and impact models, the projections indicate a tendency toward unprecedented exacerbation of soil moisture droughts that could pose serious threats to food security of North African and Sahelian societies in the absence of effective mitigation and adaptation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed Elkouk & Zine El Abidine Morjani & Yadu Pokhrel & Abdelghani Chehbouni & Abdelfattah Sifeddine & Stephan Thober & Lhoussaine Bouchaou, 2021. "Multi-model ensemble projections of soil moisture drought over North Africa and the Sahel region under 1.5, 2, and 3 °C global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 1-18, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:167:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03202-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03202-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aiguo Dai, 2013. "Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(1), pages 52-58, January.
    2. Rachel James & Richard Washington, 2013. "Changes in African temperature and precipitation associated with degrees of global warming," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(4), pages 859-872, April.
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    4. Aiguo Dai, 2013. "Erratum: Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(2), pages 171-171, February.
    5. Jong-Yeon Park & Jürgen Bader & Daniela Matei, 2015. "Northern-hemispheric differential warming is the key to understanding the discrepancies in the projected Sahel rainfall," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-8, May.
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