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Future surface temperatures over Europe according to CMIP6 climate projections: an analysis with original and bias-corrected data

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  • D Carvalho

    (University of Aveiro, Campus Universitário de Santiago)

  • S Cardoso Pereira

    (University of Aveiro, Campus Universitário de Santiago)

  • A Rocha

    (University of Aveiro, Campus Universitário de Santiago)

Abstract

Future changes in the mean, maximum, and minimum surface temperature over Europe are investigated according to CMIP6 future climate projections. All the temperature variables are projected to increase across Europe particularly in northern and southernmost latitudes, where according to SSP5-8.5 the warming can reach 2–3 (5–6) °C at the middle (end) of the current century. The warming is particularly strong in Northern (Mediterranean) areas in winter (summer) seasons. The occurrence of hot days (mean temperature > 30 °C) is projected to increase in all southern Europe by the end of the century (> 40–60 days/year), particularly in the southern parts of the Iberian Peninsula and Turkey. Increases in the occurrence of very hot days (maximum temperature > 40 °C) are projected in the central-southern areas of the Iberian Peninsula (30–40 days/year) and southern Turkey (> 50 days/year) in the end of the century. Tropical nights are expected to increase throughout the century in all Europe (except the northernmost latitudes), particularly at southern Europe for the 2081–2100 period (50–80 nights/year). Frost days (minimum temperature

Suggested Citation

  • D Carvalho & S Cardoso Pereira & A Rocha, 2021. "Future surface temperatures over Europe according to CMIP6 climate projections: an analysis with original and bias-corrected data," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-17, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:167:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03159-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03159-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carvalho, D. & Rocha, A. & Santos, C. Silva & Pereira, R., 2013. "Wind resource modelling in complex terrain using different mesoscale–microscale coupling techniques," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 493-504.
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    3. Carvalho, D. & Rocha, A. & Gómez-Gesteira, M. & Silva Santos, C., 2017. "Potential impacts of climate change on European wind energy resource under the CMIP5 future climate projections," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 29-40.
    4. Costoya, X. & Rocha, A. & Carvalho, D., 2020. "Using bias-correction to improve future projections of offshore wind energy resource: A case study on the Iberian Peninsula," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
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    6. Carvalho, D. & Rocha, A. & Costoya, X. & deCastro, M. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2021. "Wind energy resource over Europe under CMIP6 future climate projections: What changes from CMIP5 to CMIP6," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

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