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Effect of climate change over landfalling hurricanes at the Yucatan Peninsula

Author

Listed:
  • Christian M. Appendini

    (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
    Laboratorios Nacionales CONACYT)

  • Rafael Meza-Padilla

    (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México)

  • Said Abud-Russell

    (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México)

  • Sébastien Proust

    (Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo)

  • Roberto E. Barrios

    (Southern Illinois University)

  • Fernando Secaira-Fajardo

    (The Nature Conservancy)

Abstract

Tropical cyclones generated in the North Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific are a constant hazard for Mexico. Along with a possible increased hazard of tropical cyclones due to global warming, there is an inescapable increase in vulnerability and disaster risk towards tropical cyclones due to population growth and coastal infrastructure developments. In Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula has the highest landfall rates of major category hurricanes in addition to the highest rate of population growth in major tourist cities. Therefore, the assessment of landfalling tropical cyclones is of paramount importance for emergency management and planning. This paper provides an assessment of the future climate for landfalling tropical cyclones in the Yucatan Peninsula, based on synthetic tropical cyclones driven by atmospheric models (reanalysis and six different general circulation models (GCMs)) and under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change scenario. The results using the ensemble mean from the GCMs show that the Yucatan Peninsula will be more susceptible to more frequent intense hurricanes and more regular events undergoing rapid intensification. We conclude that even under the uncertainty imposed by the results, it is more likely than not that the future climate will bring more extreme events to this area. Therefore, it becomes imperative to implement strategic planning based on the characterization of tropical cyclone hazards framed within the assessment of global warming effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian M. Appendini & Rafael Meza-Padilla & Said Abud-Russell & Sébastien Proust & Roberto E. Barrios & Fernando Secaira-Fajardo, 2019. "Effect of climate change over landfalling hurricanes at the Yucatan Peninsula," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 469-482, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:157:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-019-02569-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02569-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriela Mendoza-González & Arely Paredes-Chi & Dalia Méndez-Funes & María Giraldo & Edgar Torres-Irineo & Eliana Arancibia & Rodolfo Rioja-Nieto, 2021. "Perceptions and Social Values Regarding the Ecosystem Services of Beaches and Coastal Dunes in Yucatán, Mexico," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-22, March.
    2. Pablo Ruiz-Salcines & Christian M. Appendini & Paulo Salles & Wilmer Rey & Jonathan L. Vigh, 2021. "On the use of synthetic tropical cyclones and hypothetical events for storm surge assessment under climate change," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(1), pages 431-459, January.

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