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Global trends in tropical cyclone risk

Author

Listed:
  • P. Peduzzi

    (Global Change and Vulnerability Unit, DEWA/GRID-Geneva, United Nations Environment Programme, 11, ch. Anémones
    Institute of Geomatics and Risk Analysis (IGAR), Faculty of GeoSciences and Environment, Amphipôle, University of Lausanne)

  • B. Chatenoux

    (Global Change and Vulnerability Unit, DEWA/GRID-Geneva, United Nations Environment Programme, 11, ch. Anémones
    Institut F. A. Forel, Faculty of Sciences, University of Geneva, 10, Route de Suisse)

  • H. Dao

    (Global Change and Vulnerability Unit, DEWA/GRID-Geneva, United Nations Environment Programme, 11, ch. Anémones
    University of Geneva, Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences, Uni Mail, 40, Bd du Pont-d’Arve)

  • A. De Bono

    (Global Change and Vulnerability Unit, DEWA/GRID-Geneva, United Nations Environment Programme, 11, ch. Anémones
    Institut F. A. Forel, Faculty of Sciences, University of Geneva, 10, Route de Suisse)

  • C. Herold

    (Global Change and Vulnerability Unit, DEWA/GRID-Geneva, United Nations Environment Programme, 11, ch. Anémones
    Institut F. A. Forel, Faculty of Sciences, University of Geneva, 10, Route de Suisse)

  • J. Kossin

    (National Climatic Data Center/NOAA, 151, Patton Avenue)

  • F. Mouton

    (Institut Fourier, University of Grenoble, 100, rue des maths, BP 74)

  • O. Nordbeck

    (Global Change and Vulnerability Unit, DEWA/GRID-Geneva, United Nations Environment Programme, 11, ch. Anémones)

Abstract

The impact of tropical cyclones on humans depends on the number of people exposed and their vulnerability, as well as the frequency and intensity of storms. How will the cumulative effects of climate change, demography and vulnerability affect risk? Conventionally, reports assessing tropical cyclone risk trends are based on reported losses, but these figures are biased by improvements to information access. Here we present a new methodology based on thousands of physically observed events and related contextual parameters. We show that mortality risk depends on tropical cyclone intensity, exposure, levels of poverty and governance. Despite the projected reduction in the frequency of tropical cyclones, projected increases in both demographic pressure and tropical cyclone intensity over the next 20 years can be expected to greatly increase the number of people exposed per year and exacerbate disaster risk, despite potential progression in development and governance.

Suggested Citation

  • P. Peduzzi & B. Chatenoux & H. Dao & A. De Bono & C. Herold & J. Kossin & F. Mouton & O. Nordbeck, 2012. "Global trends in tropical cyclone risk," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(4), pages 289-294, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:2:y:2012:i:4:d:10.1038_nclimate1410
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1410
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