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Rapid intensification and the bimodal distribution of tropical cyclone intensity

Author

Listed:
  • Chia-Ying Lee

    (International Research Institute of Climate and Society, Columbia University)

  • Michael K. Tippett

    (Columbia University
    Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research, King Abdulaziz University)

  • Adam H. Sobel

    (Columbia University
    Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University)

  • Suzana J. Camargo

    (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University)

Abstract

The severity of a tropical cyclone (TC) is often summarized by its lifetime maximum intensity (LMI), and the climatological LMI distribution is a fundamental feature of the climate system. The distinctive bimodality of the LMI distribution means that major storms (LMI >96 kt) are not very rare compared with less intense storms. Rapid intensification (RI) is the dramatic strengthening of a TC in a short time, and is notoriously difficult to forecast or simulate. Here we show that the bimodality of the LMI distribution reflects two types of storms: those that undergo RI during their lifetime (RI storms) and those that do not (non-RI storms). The vast majority (79%) of major storms are RI storms. Few non-RI storms (6%) become major storms. While the importance of RI has been recognized in weather forecasting, our results demonstrate that RI also plays a crucial role in the TC climatology.

Suggested Citation

  • Chia-Ying Lee & Michael K. Tippett & Adam H. Sobel & Suzana J. Camargo, 2016. "Rapid intensification and the bimodal distribution of tropical cyclone intensity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-5, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:7:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1038_ncomms10625
    DOI: 10.1038/ncomms10625
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    Cited by:

    1. Yi Li & Youmin Tang & Shuai Wang & Ralf Toumi & Xiangzhou Song & Qiang Wang, 2023. "Recent increases in tropical cyclone rapid intensification events in global offshore regions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Christian M. Appendini & Rafael Meza-Padilla & Said Abud-Russell & Sébastien Proust & Roberto E. Barrios & Fernando Secaira-Fajardo, 2019. "Effect of climate change over landfalling hurricanes at the Yucatan Peninsula," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 469-482, December.
    3. Iam-Fei Pun & Johnny C. L. Chan & I.-I. Lin & Kelvin T. F. Chan & James F. Price & Dong Shan Ko & Chun-Chi Lien & Yu-Lun Wu & Hsiao-Ching Huang, 2019. "Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Hato (2017) over Shallow Water," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-20, July.

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