IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v154y2019i3d10.1007_s10584-019-02446-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Potential impacts of global warming levels 1.5 °C and above on climate extremes in Botswana

Author

Listed:
  • Felicia O. Akinyemi

    (Botswana International University of Science and Technology
    University of Bonn)

  • Babatunde J. Abiodun

    (University of Cape Town)

Abstract

Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels has been proposed as a way to reduce the impacts of climate change globally. Formulating reliable policies to adapt to these warming levels requires an understanding of the impacts at regional and national scales. The present study examines the potential impacts of the different global warming levels (1.5 °C and above) on climate extremes over Botswana, one of the most vulnerable countries to extreme climate events. Using a series of regional climate model simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), we investigate the impacts of the warming on characteristics of the rainy season (onset, cessation, length, and number of wet days), extreme precipitation, and droughts. The simulations project a short length of the rainy season with a reduced number of wet days over Botswana at all the warming levels. They also indicate more frequent and intensified extreme precipitation, particularly in north-west Botswana. However, the additional rain water from the extreme rainfall may not offset the deficit in rainfall amount induced by the shorter rainy season with fewer wet days. Drought intensity and frequency are also projected to increase, but the magnitude of changes increases with higher warming levels. The policy implications of projected changes are discussed in relation to the possible impacts on society using agriculture and water availability as examples.

Suggested Citation

  • Felicia O. Akinyemi & Babatunde J. Abiodun, 2019. "Potential impacts of global warming levels 1.5 °C and above on climate extremes in Botswana," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 387-400, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:154:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-019-02446-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02446-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-019-02446-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-019-02446-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Seung-Ki Min & Xuebin Zhang & Francis W. Zwiers & Gabriele C. Hegerl, 2011. "Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes," Nature, Nature, vol. 470(7334), pages 378-381, February.
    2. Babatunde J. Abiodun & Jimmy Adegoke & Abayomi A. Abatan & Chidi A. Ibe & Temitope S. Egbebiyi & Francois Engelbrecht & Izidine Pinto, 2017. "Potential impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation over four African coastal cities," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(3), pages 399-413, August.
    3. Filippo Giorgi & Erika Coppola & Francesca Raffaele & Gulilat Diro & Ramon Fuentes-Franco & Graziano Giuliani & Ashu Mamgain & Marta Llopart & Laura Mariotti & Csaba Torma, 2014. "Changes in extremes and hydroclimatic regimes in the CREMA ensemble projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 39-51, July.
    4. Akinyemi, Felicia O. & Mashame, Gofamodimo, 2018. "Analysis of land change in the dryland agricultural landscapes of eastern Botswana," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 798-811.
    5. Izidine Pinto & Christopher Lennard & Mark Tadross & Bruce Hewitson & Alessandro Dosio & Grigory Nikulin & Hans-Juergen Panitz & Mxolisi E. Shongwe, 2016. "Evaluation and projections of extreme precipitation over southern Africa from two CORDEX models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 655-668, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jinxin Zhu & Xuerou Weng & Bing Guo & Xueting Zeng & Cong Dong, 2023. "Investigating Extreme Snowfall Changes in China Based on an Ensemble of High-Resolution Regional Climate Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-17, February.
    2. Zoleka Ncoyini-Manciya & Michael J. Savage, 2022. "The Assessment of Future Air Temperature and Rainfall Changes Based on the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM): The Case of the Wartburg Community in KZN Midlands, South Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-19, August.
    3. Lü, Da & Gao, Guangyao & Lü, Yihe & Xiao, Feiyan & Fu, Bojie, 2020. "Detailed land use transition quantification matters for smart land management in drylands: An in-depth analysis in Northwest China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. Ping Lan & Li Guo & Yaling Zhang & Guanghua Qin & Xiaodong Li & Carlos R. Mello & Elizabeth W. Boyer & Yehui Zhang & Bihang Fan, 2024. "Updating probable maximum precipitation for Hong Kong under intensifying extreme precipitation events," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(2), pages 1-20, February.
    5. Kaustubh Salvi & Subimal Ghosh, 2016. "Projections of Extreme Dry and Wet Spells in the 21st Century India Using Stationary and Non-stationary Standardized Precipitation Indices," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 667-681, December.
    6. Brennan, Timothy J., 2011. "Energy Efficiency Policy: Surveying the Puzzles," RFF Working Paper Series dp-11-27, Resources for the Future.
    7. Getachew Tegegne & Assefa M. Melesse, 2020. "Multimodel Ensemble Projection of Hydro-climatic Extremes for Climate Change Impact Assessment on Water Resources," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(9), pages 3019-3035, July.
    8. -, 2018. "Climate Change in Central America: Potential Impacts and Public Policy Options," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL en México (Estudios e Investigaciones) 39150, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    9. Peng Jiang & Zhongbo Yu & Mahesh R. Gautam & Kumud Acharya, 2016. "The Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation Events in the Western United States," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4807-4821, October.
    10. Qiang Zhang & Jianfeng Li & Vijay Singh & Yungang Bai, 2012. "SPI-based evaluation of drought events in Xinjiang, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(1), pages 481-492, October.
    11. Abedifar, Pejman & Kashizadeh, Seyed Javad & Ongena, Steven, 2024. "Flood, farms and credit: The role of branch banking in the era of climate change," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    12. Ikefuji, Masako & Horii, Ryo, 2012. "Natural disasters in a two-sector model of endogenous growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(9-10), pages 784-796.
    13. Fabian Barthel & Eric Neumayer, 2012. "A trend analysis of normalized insured damage from natural disasters," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 215-237, July.
    14. Yang Yang & Lili Ren & Mingxuan Wu & Hailong Wang & Fengfei Song & L. Ruby Leung & Xin Hao & Jiandong Li & Lei Chen & Huimin Li & Liangying Zeng & Yang Zhou & Pinya Wang & Hong Liao & Jing Wang & Zhen, 2022. "Abrupt emissions reductions during COVID-19 contributed to record summer rainfall in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-7, December.
    15. David Kabelka & David Kincl & Jan Vopravil & Jiří Brychta & Jan Bačovský, 2023. "Measuring of infiltration rate in different types of soil in the Czech Republic using a rainfall simulator," Soil and Water Research, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 18(2), pages 128-137.
    16. Yonaba, R. & Koïta, M. & Mounirou, L.A. & Tazen, F. & Queloz, P. & Biaou, A.C. & Niang, D. & Zouré, C. & Karambiri, H. & Yacouba, H., 2021. "Spatial and transient modelling of land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics in a Sahelian landscape under semi-arid climate in northern Burkina Faso," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    17. Margot Hill Clarvis & Erin Bohensky & Masaru Yarime, 2015. "Can Resilience Thinking Inform Resilience Investments? Learning from Resilience Principles for Disaster Risk Reduction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(7), pages 1-19, July.
    18. Mark D. Risser & William D. Collins & Michael F. Wehner & Travis A. O’Brien & Huanping Huang & Paul A. Ullrich, 2024. "Anthropogenic aerosols mask increases in US rainfall by greenhouse gases," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    19. Junyao Zhang & Ning Yao & Yi Li & Feng Li & Bakhtiyor Pulatov, 2022. "Effects of Different Socioeconomic Development Levels on Extreme Precipitation Events in Mainland China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-19, November.
    20. Botlhe Matlhodi & Piet K. Kenabatho & Bhagabat P. Parida & Joyce G. Maphanyane, 2019. "Evaluating Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Gaborone Dam Catchment, Botswana, from 1984–2015 Using GIS and Remote Sensing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-21, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:154:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-019-02446-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.