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Analysis of land change in the dryland agricultural landscapes of eastern Botswana

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  • Akinyemi, Felicia O.
  • Mashame, Gofamodimo

Abstract

This study’s focus is on Palapye, a predominantly dryland agricultural but urbanising region in eastern Botswana. Maps of ten land use-land cover (LULC) categories at three time points (1986, 2000, and 2014) were produced based on the ISO 19144 land cover classification scheme. Land change intensities were examined at the time interval, category and transition levels using Intensity Analysis. A combination of multi-layer perceptron neural network and Markov chain analysis was used to project LULC to 2028 and investigate future changes. The rate of land change was faster during the second time interval (2000–2014) than during the first time interval (1986–2000) as the region transforms from an agrarian to a service economy. In the first time interval cropland was a net losing category, whereas it was a net gaining category during the second time interval. Cropland expanded into shrublands in the southwestern part of the study area. The built-up category was active in gains during the two time intervals as it targeted grasslands and shrublands. Built-up is also projected to gain an additional 272 km2 by 2028. The bareland and paved/rocky materials categories were also active in gains during both time intervals. A loss of 26% of natural land cover over the study period was recorded due mainly to transition into croplands, built-up areas, and grassland. The policy implications of findings are discussed as this region is important for biodiversity, ecosystem services, food production, mining, and tourism.

Suggested Citation

  • Akinyemi, Felicia O. & Mashame, Gofamodimo, 2018. "Analysis of land change in the dryland agricultural landscapes of eastern Botswana," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 798-811.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:76:y:2018:i:c:p:798-811
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.03.010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert Gilmore Pontius & Yan Gao & Nicholas M. Giner & Takashi Kohyama & Mitsuru Osaki & Kazuyo Hirose, 2013. "Design and Interpretation of Intensity Analysis Illustrated by Land Change in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia," Land, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-19, July.
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    4. Fekadu Beyene, 2015. "Determinants of food security under changing land-use systems among pastoral and agro-pastoral households in eastern Ethiopia," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 17(5), pages 1163-1182, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lü, Da & Gao, Guangyao & Lü, Yihe & Xiao, Feiyan & Fu, Bojie, 2020. "Detailed land use transition quantification matters for smart land management in drylands: An in-depth analysis in Northwest China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    2. Ephias Mugari & Hillary Masundire, 2022. "Consistent Changes in Land-Use/Land-Cover in Semi-Arid Areas: Implications on Ecosystem Service Delivery and Adaptation in the Limpopo Basin, Botswana," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-20, November.
    3. Yonaba, R. & Koïta, M. & Mounirou, L.A. & Tazen, F. & Queloz, P. & Biaou, A.C. & Niang, D. & Zouré, C. & Karambiri, H. & Yacouba, H., 2021. "Spatial and transient modelling of land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics in a Sahelian landscape under semi-arid climate in northern Burkina Faso," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    4. Felicia O. Akinyemi & Babatunde J. Abiodun, 2019. "Potential impacts of global warming levels 1.5 °C and above on climate extremes in Botswana," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 387-400, June.
    5. Ephias Mugari & Hillary Masundire & Maitseo Bolaane, 2020. "Adapting to Climate Change in Semi-Arid Rural Areas: A Case of the Limpopo Basin Part of Botswana," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-34, October.
    6. Botlhe Matlhodi & Piet K. Kenabatho & Bhagabat P. Parida & Joyce G. Maphanyane, 2019. "Evaluating Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Gaborone Dam Catchment, Botswana, from 1984–2015 Using GIS and Remote Sensing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-21, September.
    7. Adzigbli, Wonder Kofi & Duku, Eric & Atampugre, Gerald & Fürst, Christine & Nyarko, Benjamin Kofi, 2024. "Agricultural land use policies and landscape dynamics: Evidence from rainforest agroecological zone," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).

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