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Changes in extremes and hydroclimatic regimes in the CREMA ensemble projections

Author

Listed:
  • Filippo Giorgi
  • Erika Coppola
  • Francesca Raffaele
  • Gulilat Diro
  • Ramon Fuentes-Franco
  • Graziano Giuliani
  • Ashu Mamgain
  • Marta Llopart
  • Laura Mariotti
  • Csaba Torma

Abstract

We analyze changes of four extreme hydroclimatic indices in the RCP8.5 projections of the Phase I CREMA experiment, which includes 21st century projections over 5 CORDEX domains (Africa, Central America, South America, South Asia, Mediterranean) with the ICTP regional model RegCM4 driven by three CMIP5 global models. The indices are: Heat Wave Day Index (HWD), Maximum Consecutive Dry Day index (CDD), fraction of precipitation above the 95th intensity percentile (R95) and Hydroclimatic Intensity index (HY-INT). Comparison with coarse (GPCP) and high (TRMM) resolution daily precipitation data for the present day conditions shows that the precipitation intensity distributions from the GCMs are close to the GPCP data, while the RegCM4 ones are closer to TRMM, illustrating the added value of the increased resolution of the regional model. All global and regional model simulations project predominant increases in HWD, CDD, R95 and HY-INT, implying a regime shift towards more intense, less frequent rain events and increasing risk of heat wave, drought and flood with global warming. However, the magnitudes of the changes are generally larger in the global than the regional models, likely because of the relatively low “climate sensitivity” of the RegCM4, especially when using the CLM land surface scheme. In addition, pronounced regional differences in the change signals are found. The data from these simulations are available for use in impact assessment studies. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Filippo Giorgi & Erika Coppola & Francesca Raffaele & Gulilat Diro & Ramon Fuentes-Franco & Graziano Giuliani & Ashu Mamgain & Marta Llopart & Laura Mariotti & Csaba Torma, 2014. "Changes in extremes and hydroclimatic regimes in the CREMA ensemble projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 39-51, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:125:y:2014:i:1:p:39-51
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1117-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anonymous, 2014. "Introduction to the Issue," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 1-2, May.
    2. Filippo Giorgi, 2014. "Introduction to the special issue: the phase I CORDEX RegCM4 hyper-matrix (CREMA) experiment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 1-5, July.
    3. Anonymous, 2014. "Introduction to the Issue," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 109-110, August.
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    1. Jinxin Zhu & Xuerou Weng & Bing Guo & Xueting Zeng & Cong Dong, 2023. "Investigating Extreme Snowfall Changes in China Based on an Ensemble of High-Resolution Regional Climate Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-17, February.
    2. Izidine Pinto & Christopher Lennard & Mark Tadross & Bruce Hewitson & Alessandro Dosio & Grigory Nikulin & Hans-Juergen Panitz & Mxolisi E. Shongwe, 2016. "Evaluation and projections of extreme precipitation over southern Africa from two CORDEX models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 655-668, April.
    3. Filippo Giorgi, 2014. "Introduction to the special issue: the phase I CORDEX RegCM4 hyper-matrix (CREMA) experiment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 1-5, July.
    4. M. N. Lorenzo & I. Alvarez, 2022. "Future changes of hot extremes in Spain: towards warmer conditions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(1), pages 383-402, August.
    5. Getachew Tegegne & Assefa M. Melesse, 2020. "Multimodel Ensemble Projection of Hydro-climatic Extremes for Climate Change Impact Assessment on Water Resources," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(9), pages 3019-3035, July.
    6. Felicia O. Akinyemi & Babatunde J. Abiodun, 2019. "Potential impacts of global warming levels 1.5 °C and above on climate extremes in Botswana," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 387-400, June.

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