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Attributing high-impact extreme events across timescales—a case study of four different types of events

Author

Listed:
  • Friederike E. L. Otto

    (University of Oxford)

  • Sjoukje Philip

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))

  • Sarah Kew

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))

  • Sihan Li

    (University of Oxford)

  • Andrew King

    (University of Melbourne)

  • Heidi Cullen

    (Climate Central)

Abstract

Increasing likelihoods of extreme weather events is the most noticeable and damaging manifestation of anthropogenic climate change. In the aftermath of an extreme event, policy makers are often called upon to make timely and sensitive decisions about rebuilding and managing present and future risks. Information regarding whether, where and how present-day and future risks are changing is needed to adequately inform these decisions. But, this information is often not available and when it is, it is often not presented in a systematic way. Here, we demonstrate a seamless approach to the science of extreme event attribution and future risk assessment by using the same set of model ensembles to provide such information on past, present and future hazard risks in four case studies on different types of events. Given the current relevance, we focus on estimating the change in future hazard risk under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global mean temperature rise. We find that this approach not only addresses important decision-making gaps, but also improves the robustness of future risk assessment and attribution statements alike.

Suggested Citation

  • Friederike E. L. Otto & Sjoukje Philip & Sarah Kew & Sihan Li & Andrew King & Heidi Cullen, 2018. "Attributing high-impact extreme events across timescales—a case study of four different types of events," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 399-412, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:149:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2258-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2258-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Friederike E. L. Otto & Geert Jan van Oldenborgh & Jonathan Eden & Peter A. Stott & David J. Karoly & Myles R. Allen, 2016. "The attribution question," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 813-816, September.
    2. Luke J. Harrington, 2017. "Investigating differences between event-as-class and probability density-based attribution statements with emerging climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(4), pages 641-654, April.
    3. E. M. Fischer & R. Knutti, 2015. "Anthropogenic contribution to global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(6), pages 560-564, June.
    4. Nathalie Schaller & Alison L. Kay & Rob Lamb & Neil R. Massey & Geert Jan van Oldenborgh & Friederike E. L. Otto & Sarah N. Sparrow & Robert Vautard & Pascal Yiou & Ian Ashpole & Andy Bowery & Susan M, 2016. "Human influence on climate in the 2014 southern England winter floods and their impacts," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(6), pages 627-634, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Coronese & Davide Luzzati, 2022. "Economic impacts of natural hazards and complexity science: a critical review," LEM Papers Series 2022/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    2. Md. Monirul Islam Chowdhury & Syed Masiur Rahman & Ismaila Rimi Abubakar & Yusuf A. Aina & Md. Arif Hasan & A. N. Khondaker, 2021. "A review of policies and initiatives for climate change mitigation and environmental sustainability in Bangladesh," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 1133-1161, February.
    3. Luke J. Harrington & Kristie L. Ebi & David J. Frame & Friederike E. L. Otto, 2022. "Integrating attribution with adaptation for unprecedented future heatwaves," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-7, May.
    4. World Bank, 2023. "Somalia Climate Risk Review," World Bank Publications - Reports 40076, The World Bank Group.
    5. Abdelaziz, Sara & Sparrow, Sarah N. & Hua, Weiqi & Wallom, David C.H., 2024. "Assessing long-term future climate change impacts on extreme low wind events for offshore wind turbines in the UK exclusive economic zone," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 354(PB).

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