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The social utility of event attribution: liability, adaptation, and justice-based loss and damage

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  • Greg Lusk

    (University of Chicago)

Abstract

Probabilistic event attribution aims to attribute weather events to anthropogenic forcings. Some claim the development of this methodology is motivated by social utility rather than scientific understanding. I trace the evolution of arguments for probabilistic event attribution’s social usefulness from their origins in private climate change litigation through adaptive decision-making, and end with the methodology’s relevance for addressing loss and damage due to extreme events. I show that probabilistic event attribution is unlikely to substantially contribute to litigation or adaptation, and while it is potentially relevant for addressing loss and damage, securing a lasting role in this context requires answering some key questions regarding event attribution’s capacities and deployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Greg Lusk, 2017. "The social utility of event attribution: liability, adaptation, and justice-based loss and damage," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 201-212, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:143:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-017-1967-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1967-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Pardeep Pall & Tolu Aina & Dáithí A. Stone & Peter A. Stott & Toru Nozawa & Arno G. J. Hilberts & Dag Lohmann & Myles R. Allen, 2011. "Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000," Nature, Nature, vol. 470(7334), pages 382-385, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elisabeth A. Lloyd & Theodore G. Shepherd, 2021. "Climate change attribution and legal contexts: evidence and the role of storylines," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 1-13, August.
    2. Louis J. Kotzé & Benoit Mayer & Harro van Asselt & Joana Setzer & Frank Biermann & Nicolas Celis & Sam Adelman & Bridget Lewis & Amanda Kennedy & Helen Arling & Birgit Peters, 2024. "Courts, climate litigation and the evolution of earth system law," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 15(1), pages 5-22, February.
    3. Aditya N. Mishra & Douglas Maraun & Raphael Knevels & Heimo Truhetz & Alexander Brenning & Herwig Proske, 2023. "Climate change amplified the 2009 extreme landslide event in Austria," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(9), pages 1-18, September.
    4. Emily Williams, 2020. "Attributing blame?—climate accountability and the uneven landscape of impacts, emissions, and finances," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(2), pages 273-290, July.
    5. Diekert, Florian & Goeschl, Timo & König-Kersting, Christian, 2024. "The Behavioral Economics of Extreme Event Attribution," Working Papers 0741, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    6. Giovanni Bettini & Giovanna Gioli & Romain Felli, 2020. "Clouded skies: How digital technologies could reshape “Loss and Damage” from climate change," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(4), July.
    7. Benoit Mayer, 2022. "Attribution science and the fate of climate litigation," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 13(5), pages 831-832, November.
    8. Henrik Thorén & Johannes Persson & Lennart Olsson, 2021. "A pluralist approach to epistemic dilemmas in event attribution science," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(1), pages 1-17, November.
    9. Tobias Pfrommer & Timo Goeschl & Alexander Proelss & Martin Carrier & Johannes Lenhard & Henrike Martin & Ulrike Niemeier & Hauke Schmidt, 2019. "Establishing causation in climate litigation: admissibility and reliability," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(1), pages 67-84, January.

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