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Six languages for a risky climate: how farmers react to weather and climate change

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  • Kieran M. Findlater

    (University of British Columbia
    University of Cape Town)

  • Terre Satterfield

    (University of British Columbia)

  • Milind Kandlikar

    (University of British Columbia)

  • Simon D. Donner

    (University of British Columbia)

Abstract

How climate-sensitive actors—like commercial farmers—perceive, understand, and react to weather and climate stimuli will ultimately determine the success or failure of climate change adaptation policies. Many studies have characterized farmers’ climate risk perceptions or farming practices, but few have evaluated the in situ decision-making processes that link (or fail to link) risk perceptions to adaptive behaviors. Here, we use a novel methodology to reveal patterns in climate-sensitive decision-making by commercial grain farmers in South Africa. We structure, linguistically code, and statistically analyze causal relationships described in 30 mental models interviews. We show that farmers’ framing of weather and climate risks strongly predicts their adoption of conservation agriculture (CA)—climate-resilient best practices that reduce shorter-term financial and weather risks and longer-term agronomic risks. These farmers describe weather and climate risks using six exhaustive and mutually exclusive languages: agricultural, cognitive, economic, emotional, political, and survival. The prevalence of agricultural and economic language only weakly predicts CA practice, whereas emotional and farm survival language strongly limits CA adoption. The framing of weather risks in terms of farm survival impedes adaptations that are likely to improve such survival in the longer term. But this survival framing is not necessarily indicative of farmers’ current economic circumstances. It represents a consequential mindset rather than a financial state and it may go undetected in more conventional studies relying on direct survey or interview questions.

Suggested Citation

  • Kieran M. Findlater & Terre Satterfield & Milind Kandlikar & Simon D. Donner, 2018. "Six languages for a risky climate: how farmers react to weather and climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(4), pages 451-465, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:148:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2217-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2217-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Kieran M. Findlater & Terre Satterfield & Milind Kandlikar, 2019. "Farmers’ Risk‐Based Decision Making Under Pervasive Uncertainty: Cognitive Thresholds and Hazy Hedging," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(8), pages 1755-1770, August.
    2. Margiana Petersen-Rockney, 2022. "Farmers adapt to climate change irrespective of stated belief in climate change: a California case study," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 1-23, August.
    3. Tina-Simone Neset & Therese Asplund & Janina Käyhkö & Sirkku Juhola, 2019. "Making sense of maladaptation: Nordic agriculture stakeholders’ perspectives," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 107-121, March.
    4. Sandra Ricart & Jorge Olcina & Antonio M. Rico, 2018. "Evaluating Public Attitudes and Farmers’ Beliefs towards Climate Change Adaptation: Awareness, Perception, and Populism at European Level," Land, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, December.
    5. Susanne Hanger-Kopp & Marlene Palka, 2022. "Decision spaces in agricultural risk management: a mental model study of Austrian crop farmers," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 6072-6098, May.
    6. José L. Martínez González, 2019. "High Wages or Wages For Energy? An Alternative View of The British Case (1645-1700)," Working Papers 0158, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).

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