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Early action on Paris Agreement allows for more time to change energy systems

Author

Listed:
  • Heleen L. van Soest

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • Harmen Sytze de Boer

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • Mark Roelfsema

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Michel G.J. den Elzen

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Annemiek Admiraal

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Detlef P. van Vuuren

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • Andries F. Hof

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • Maarten van den Berg

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • Mathijs J.H.M. Harmsen

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • David E.H.J. Gernaat

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
    Utrecht University)

  • Nicklas Forsell

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

Abstract

The IMAGE integrated assessment model was used to develop a set of scenarios to evaluate the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by Parties under the Paris Agreement. The scenarios project emissions and energy system changes under (i) current policies, (ii) implementation of the NDCs, and (iii) various trajectories to a radiative forcing level of 2.8 W/m2 in 2100, which gives a probability of about two thirds to limit warming to below 2 °C. The scenarios show that a cost-optimal pathway from 2020 onwards towards 2.8 W/m2 leads to a global greenhouse gas emission level of 38 gigatonne CO2 equivalent (GtCO2eq) by 2030, equal to a reduction of 20% compared to the 2010 level. The NDCs are projected to lead to 2030 emission levels of 50 GtCO2eq, which is still an increase compared to the 2010 level. A scenario that achieves the 2.8 W/m2 forcing level in 2100 from the 2030 NDC level requires more rapid transitions after 2030 to meet the forcing target. It shows an annual reduction rate in greenhouse gas emissions of 4.7% between 2030 and 2050, rapidly phasing out unabated coal-fired power plant capacity, more rapid scale-up of low-carbon energy, and higher mitigation costs. A bridge scenario shows that enhancing the ambition level of NDCs before 2030 allows for a smoother energy system transition, with average annual emission reduction rates of 4.5% between 2030 and 2050, and more time to phase out coal capacity.

Suggested Citation

  • Heleen L. van Soest & Harmen Sytze de Boer & Mark Roelfsema & Michel G.J. den Elzen & Annemiek Admiraal & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Andries F. Hof & Maarten van den Berg & Mathijs J.H.M. Harmsen & David , 2017. "Early action on Paris Agreement allows for more time to change energy systems," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 165-179, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:144:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2027-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2027-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michel Elzen & Annemiek Admiraal & Mark Roelfsema & Heleen Soest & Andries F. Hof & Nicklas Forsell, 2016. "Contribution of the G20 economies to the global impact of the Paris agreement climate proposals," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 655-665, August.
    2. de Boer, Harmen Sytze (H.S.) & van Vuuren, Detlef (D.P.), 2017. "Representation of variable renewable energy sources in TIMER, an aggregated energy system simulation model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 600-611.
    3. Reyer Gerlagh & Snorre Kverndokk & Knut Rosendahl, 2009. "Optimal Timing of Climate Change Policy: Interaction Between Carbon Taxes and Innovation Externalities," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 369-390, July.
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    5. Roelfsema, Mark & Elzen, Michel den & Höhne, Niklas & Hof, Andries F. & Braun, Nadine & Fekete, Hanna & Böttcher, Hannes & Brandsma, Ruut & Larkin, Julia, 2014. "Are major economies on track to achieve their pledges for 2020? An assessment of domestic climate and energy policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 781-796.
    6. Michael Jakob & Gunnar Luderer & Jan Steckel & Massimo Tavoni & Stephanie Monjon, 2012. "Time to act now? Assessing the costs of delaying climate measures and benefits of early action," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(1), pages 79-99, September.
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