IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v141y2017i4d10.1007_s10584-017-1917-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Potential distribution of the invasive loblolly pine mealybug, Oracella acuta (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae), in Asia under future climate change scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Yanting Chen

    (Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University
    Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University
    Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University
    Ministry of Agriculture)

  • Liette Vasseur

    (Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University
    Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University
    Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University
    Ministry of Agriculture)

  • Minsheng You

    (Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University
    Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University
    Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University
    Ministry of Agriculture)

Abstract

Oracella acuta is a significant invasive insect pest in China, which has already caused severe damage to host pines. It is expected that this pest may invade other regions of Asia. This research explores the projected effects of climate change on the future distribution of O. acuta in Asia. To anticipate threats and prioritize management strategies to control O. acuta, we examined the potential distribution of O. acuta under current and future climate scenarios based on CLIMEX models. These models were calibrated using the physiological tolerance thresholds for this species, and A1B and A2 scenarios for 2030 and 2070 under a CSIRO-Mk 3.0 Global Climate Model were used to predict future distribution. The results suggest that O. acuta has the ability to establish in most countries of Southern Asia, such as China, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Philippines, Sri Lanka, and India. Both scenarios showed that the species is predicted to expand its range northwards but retract in the southern edge. The A1B scenario projected a wider spread of O. acuta than the A2 scenario. Despite the uncertainties inherent to climate models and that it was not possible to integrate all parameters into the model and some assumptions had to be made, our results indicate that heat and drought stress may have significant impacts on the species distribution, especially in southern regions of Asia in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Yanting Chen & Liette Vasseur & Minsheng You, 2017. "Potential distribution of the invasive loblolly pine mealybug, Oracella acuta (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae), in Asia under future climate change scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(4), pages 719-732, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:141:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-017-1917-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1917-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-017-1917-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-017-1917-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Terry L. Root & Jeff T. Price & Kimberly R. Hall & Stephen H. Schneider & Cynthia Rosenzweig & J. Alan Pounds, 2003. "Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6918), pages 57-60, January.
    2. Camille Parmesan & Gary Yohe, 2003. "A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6918), pages 37-42, January.
    3. Boris Orlowsky & Sonia Seneviratne, 2012. "Global changes in extreme events: regional and seasonal dimension," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 669-696, February.
    4. Dingcheng Huang & Robert A Haack & Runzhi Zhang, 2011. "Does Global Warming Increase Establishment Rates of Invasive Alien Species? A Centurial Time Series Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(9), pages 1-5, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yujia Qin & Cong Wang & Zihua Zhao & Xubin Pan & Zhihong Li, 2019. "Climate change impacts on the global potential geographical distribution of the agricultural invasive pest, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(2), pages 145-156, July.
    2. Xuhui Zhang & Haiyan Wei & Zefang Zhao & Jing Liu & Quanzhong Zhang & Xiaoyan Zhang & Wei Gu, 2020. "The Global Potential Distribution of Invasive Plants: Anredera cordifolia under Climate Change and Human Activity Based on Random Forest Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-18, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Richard Tol, 2011. "Regulating knowledge monopolies: the case of the IPCC," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 827-839, October.
    2. Fabina, Nicholas S. & Abbott, Karen C. & Gilman, R.Tucker, 2010. "Sensitivity of plant–pollinator–herbivore communities to changes in phenology," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(3), pages 453-458.
    3. Brandt, Laura A. & Benscoter, Allison M. & Harvey, Rebecca & Speroterra, Carolina & Bucklin, David & Romañach, Stephanie S. & Watling, James I. & Mazzotti, Frank J., 2017. "Comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 345(C), pages 10-20.
    4. Annie Paradis & Joe Elkinton & Katharine Hayhoe & John Buonaccorsi, 2008. "Role of winter temperature and climate change on the survival and future range expansion of the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) in eastern North America," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 13(5), pages 541-554, June.
    5. Yingjie Niu & Zhentao Zou, 2024. "Robust Abatement Policy with Uncertainty About Environmental Disasters," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(4), pages 933-965, April.
    6. Singer, Alexander & Johst, Karin & Banitz, Thomas & Fowler, Mike S. & Groeneveld, Jürgen & Gutiérrez, Alvaro G. & Hartig, Florian & Krug, Rainer M. & Liess, Matthias & Matlack, Glenn & Meyer, Katrin M, 2016. "Community dynamics under environmental change: How can next generation mechanistic models improve projections of species distributions?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 326(C), pages 63-74.
    7. Disha Sachan & Pankaj Kumar & Md. Saquib Saharwardi, 2022. "Contemporary climate change velocity for near-surface temperatures over India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 1-19, August.
    8. Hong Ying & Hongyan Zhang & Ying Sun & Jianjun Zhao & Zhengxiang Zhang & Xiaoyi Guo & Hang Zhao & Rihan Wu & Guorong Deng, 2020. "CMIP5-Based Spatiotemporal Changes of Extreme Temperature Events during 2021–2100 in Mainland China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-18, May.
    9. Ferenc L. Toth & Eva Hizsnyik, 2005. "Managing The Inconceivable: Participatory Assessments Of Impacts And Responses To Extreme Climate Change," Working Papers FNU-74, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2005.
    10. Víctor Rincón & Javier Velázquez & Derya Gülçin & Aida López-Sánchez & Carlos Jiménez & Ali Uğur Özcan & Juan Carlos López-Almansa & Tomás Santamaría & Daniel Sánchez-Mata & Kerim Çiçek, 2023. "Mapping Priority Areas for Connectivity of Yellow-Winged Darter ( Sympetrum flaveolum , Linnaeus 1758) under Climate Change," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-39, January.
    11. Lucie Kuczynski & Mathieu Chevalier & Pascal Laffaille & Marion Legrand & Gaël Grenouillet, 2017. "Indirect effect of temperature on fish population abundances through phenological changes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(4), pages 1-13, April.
    12. Marco Archetti & Andrew D Richardson & John O'Keefe & Nicolas Delpierre, 2013. "Predicting Climate Change Impacts on the Amount and Duration of Autumn Colors in a New England Forest," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(3), pages 1-8, March.
    13. Miaogen Shen & Yanhong Tang & Jin Chen & Wei Yang, 2012. "Specification of thermal growing season in temperate China from 1960 to 2009," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(3), pages 783-798, October.
    14. Dissanayake, Sahan T.M. & Önal, Hayri & Westervelt, James D. & Balbach, Harold E., 2012. "Incorporating species relocation in reserve design models: An example from Ft. Benning GA," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 65-75.
    15. Jing Zhen & Xinyuan Wang & Qingkai Meng & Jingwei Song & Ying Liao & Bo Xiang & Huadong Guo & Chuansheng Liu & Ruixia Yang & Lei Luo, 2018. "Fine-Scale Evaluation of Giant Panda Habitats and Countermeasures against the Future Impacts of Climate Change and Human Disturbance (2015–2050): A Case Study in Ya’an, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-19, April.
    16. Vikram S. Negi & Deep C. Tiwari & Laxman Singh & Shinny Thakur & Indra D. Bhatt, 2022. "Review and synthesis of climate change studies in the Himalayan region," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(9), pages 10471-10502, September.
    17. Sanghun Lee & Baek-Jun Kim & Kon Joon Bhang, 2019. "Habitat Analysis of Endangered Korean Long-Tailed Goral ( Naemorhedus caudatus raddeanus ) with Weather Forecasting Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-13, November.
    18. Giovanni Rapacciuolo & David B Roy & Simon Gillings & Richard Fox & Kevin Walker & Andy Purvis, 2012. "Climatic Associations of British Species Distributions Show Good Transferability in Time but Low Predictive Accuracy for Range Change," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(7), pages 1-11, July.
    19. Ana Márquez & Raimundo Real & Jesús Olivero & Alba Estrada, 2011. "Combining climate with other influential factors for modelling the impact of climate change on species distribution," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(1), pages 135-157, September.
    20. Prato, Tony, 2012. "Increasing resilience of natural protected areas to future climate change: A fuzzy adaptive management approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 46-53.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:141:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-017-1917-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.