Climate change impacts on the global potential geographical distribution of the agricultural invasive pest, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Climate change is a major factor driving shifts in the distribution of invasive pests. The oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis, native to mainland Asia, has spread throughout Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Recently, the species has extended its Asian range northward into regions previously thought unsuitable which presents a major new risk to temperate zone agriculture and has invaded Italy. Thus, it is necessary to study how climate change may impact on the global distribution of B. dorsalis. MaxEnt models were used to map suitable habitat for this species under current and future climate conditions averaged from four global climate models under two representative emission pathways in 2050 and 2070. The results highlighted that a total of 30.84% of the world’s land mass is currently climatically suitable including parts of the western coast and southeast of the USA, most of Latin America, parts of Mediterranean coastal European regions, northern and coastal Australia, and the north island of New Zealand. Under future climate conditions, the risk area of B. dorsalis in the northern hemisphere was projected to expand northward, while in the southern hemisphere, it would be southward, especially by 2070 under RCP85 with very high greenhouse gas emissions. Future management of this pest should consider the impacts of the global climate change on its potential geographical distribution.