IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v140y2017i2d10.1007_s10584-016-1832-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantification of temperature response to CO2 forcing in atmosphere–ocean general circulation models

Author

Listed:
  • Junichi Tsutsui

    (Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry)

Abstract

The present study establishes a general formulation to represent the behavior and variation of an ensemble of complex climate models in terms of the global mean surface temperature response to atmospheric CO2 increase. The response parameters of this formulation provide a set of metrics that extends the conventional concept of climate sensitivity and quantifies transient temperature changes with sufficient simplicity and transparency to serve studies on climate change mitigation. Two commonly used metrics for transient and equilibrium climate sensitivity are analytically derived from the formulation, such that conventional estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity based on standard numerical experiments for quadrupling CO2 increase are properly scaled down to the reference level of doubling CO2. The characteristics and variations of a specific ensemble of complex climate models can be simulated with a statistical model built using the principal components (PCs) of the response parameters. This approach is applied to the probabilistic assessment of temperature changes as well as to the diagnosis of the base ensemble. In current complex climate models, the ratio of transient-to-equilibrium sensitivity decreases with an increase of equilibrium sensitivity, as identified in variations associated with two specific PCs that characterize coherence between transient temperature response and properties of heat uptake by the ocean.

Suggested Citation

  • Junichi Tsutsui, 2017. "Quantification of temperature response to CO2 forcing in atmosphere–ocean general circulation models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 287-305, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:140:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1832-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1832-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-016-1832-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-016-1832-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schaeffer, Michiel & Gohar, Laila & Kriegler, Elmar & Lowe, Jason & Riahi, Keywan & van Vuuren, Detlef, 2015. "Mid- and long-term climate projections for fragmented and delayed-action scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 257-268.
    2. Steven C. Sherwood & Sandrine Bony & Jean-Louis Dufresne, 2014. "Spread in model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing," Nature, Nature, vol. 505(7481), pages 37-42, January.
    3. Richard Millar & Alexander Otto & Piers Forster & Jason Lowe & William Ingram & Myles Allen, 2015. "Model structure in observational constraints on transient climate response," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(2), pages 199-211, July.
    4. Myles R. Allen & David J. Frame & Chris Huntingford & Chris D. Jones & Jason A. Lowe & Malte Meinshausen & Nicolai Meinshausen, 2009. "Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7242), pages 1163-1166, April.
    5. Joeri Rogelj & Malte Meinshausen & Reto Knutti, 2012. "Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(4), pages 248-253, April.
    6. Detlef Vuuren & Jason Lowe & Elke Stehfest & Laila Gohar & Andries Hof & Chris Hope & Rachel Warren & Malte Meinshausen & Gian-Kasper Plattner, 2011. "How well do integrated assessment models simulate climate change?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(2), pages 255-285, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schaeffer, Michiel & Gohar, Laila & Kriegler, Elmar & Lowe, Jason & Riahi, Keywan & van Vuuren, Detlef, 2015. "Mid- and long-term climate projections for fragmented and delayed-action scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 257-268.
    2. Riahi, Keywan & Kriegler, Elmar & Johnson, Nils & Bertram, Christoph & den Elzen, Michel & Eom, Jiyong & Schaeffer, Michiel & Edmonds, Jae & Isaac, Morna & Krey, Volker & Longden, Thomas & Luderer, Gu, 2015. "Locked into Copenhagen pledges — Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 8-23.
    3. Alexandra Jonko & Nathan M. Urban & Balu Nadiga, 2018. "Towards Bayesian hierarchical inference of equilibrium climate sensitivity from a combination of CMIP5 climate models and observational data," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(2), pages 247-260, July.
    4. Kriegler, Elmar & Riahi, Keywan & Bauer, Nico & Schwanitz, Valeria Jana & Petermann, Nils & Bosetti, Valentina & Marcucci, Adriana & Otto, Sander & Paroussos, Leonidas & Rao, Shilpa & Arroyo Currás, T, 2015. "Making or breaking climate targets: The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 24-44.
    5. Keigo Akimoto & Fuminori Sano & Toshimasa Tomoda, 2018. "GHG emission pathways until 2300 for the 1.5 °C temperature rise target and the mitigation costs achieving the pathways," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(6), pages 839-852, August.
    6. Dietz, Simon & Gollier, Christian & Kessler, Louise, 2018. "The climate beta," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 258-274.
    7. Hoel, Michael, 2016. "Optimal control theory with applications to resource and environmental economics," Memorandum 08/2016, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    8. Gustav Engström & Johan Gars, 2016. "Climatic Tipping Points and Optimal Fossil-Fuel Use," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 65(3), pages 541-571, November.
    9. Pezzey, John C.V. & Burke, Paul J., 2014. "Towards a more inclusive and precautionary indicator of global sustainability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 141-154.
    10. Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Smith, Tom & McKnight, Brent, 2016. "Environmental finance: A research agenda for interdisciplinary finance research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 124-130.
    11. Malone, Thomas C. & DiGiacomo, Paul M. & Gonçalves, Emanuel & Knap, Anthony H. & Talaue-McManus, Liana & de Mora, Stephen, 2014. "A global ocean observing system framework for sustainable development," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 262-272.
    12. Adam Michael Bauer & Cristian Proistosescu & Gernot Wagner, 2023. "Carbon Dioxide as a Risky Asset," CESifo Working Paper Series 10278, CESifo.
    13. Sen, Suphi & von Schickfus, Marie-Theres, 2020. "Climate policy, stranded assets, and investors’ expectations," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    14. Frederick Ploeg, 2021. "Carbon pricing under uncertainty," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(5), pages 1122-1142, October.
    15. Seiichi KATAYAMA & Ngo Van LONG & Hiroshi OHTA, 2013. "Carbon Taxes in a Trading World," GSICS Working Paper Series 26, Graduate School of International Cooperation Studies, Kobe University.
    16. Malik Curuk & Suphi Sen, 2023. "Climate Policy and Resource Extraction with Variable Markups and Imperfect Substitutes," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 10(4), pages 1091-1120.
    17. Rémy Dullieux & Lionel Ragot & Katheline Schubert, 2011. "Carbon Tax and OPEC’s Rents Under a Ceiling Constraint," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 113(4), pages 798-824, December.
    18. Jin, Wei & Shi, Xunpeng & Zhang, Lin, 2021. "Energy transition without dirty capital stranding," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    19. Scott Barrett & Astrid Dannenberg, 2014. "Negotiating to Avoid "Gradual" versus "Dangerous" Climate Change: An Experimental Test of Two Prisoners' Dilemma," CESifo Working Paper Series 4573, CESifo.
    20. Hans Gersbach & Noemi Hummel & Ralph Winkler, 2011. "Sustainable Climate Treaties," Diskussionsschriften dp1105, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:140:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1832-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.