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Model structure in observational constraints on transient climate response

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  • Richard Millar
  • Alexander Otto
  • Piers Forster
  • Jason Lowe
  • William Ingram
  • Myles Allen

Abstract

The transient climate response (TCR) is a highly policy-relevant quantity in climate science. We show that recent revisions to TCR in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report have more impact on projections over the next century than revisions to the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). While it is well known that upper bounds on ECS are dependent on model structure, here we show that the same applies to TCR. Our results use observations of the planetary energy budget, updated radiative forcing estimates and a number of simple climate models. We also investigate the ratio TCR:ECS, or realised warming fraction (RWF), a highly policy-relevant quantity. We show that global climate models (GCMs) don’t sample a region of low TCR and high RWF consistent with observed climate change under all simple models considered. Whether the additional constraints from GCMs are sufficient to rule out these low climate responses is a matter for further research. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Millar & Alexander Otto & Piers Forster & Jason Lowe & William Ingram & Myles Allen, 2015. "Model structure in observational constraints on transient climate response," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(2), pages 199-211, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:131:y:2015:i:2:p:199-211
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1384-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chris Huntingford, 2013. "Refining global warming projections," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(8), pages 704-705, August.
    2. Thomas Lukas Frölicher & Michael Winton & Jorge Louis Sarmiento, 2014. "Continued global warming after CO2 emissions stoppage," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(1), pages 40-44, January.
    3. Myles R. Allen & David J. Frame & Chris Huntingford & Chris D. Jones & Jason A. Lowe & Malte Meinshausen & Nicolai Meinshausen, 2009. "Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7242), pages 1163-1166, April.
    4. Boucher, O. & Reddy, M.S., 2008. "Climate trade-off between black carbon and carbon dioxide emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 193-200, January.
    5. Drew T. Shindell, 2014. "Inhomogeneous forcing and transient climate sensitivity," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(4), pages 274-277, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Junichi Tsutsui, 2017. "Quantification of temperature response to CO2 forcing in atmosphere–ocean general circulation models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 287-305, January.

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