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Variations in the potential climatic suitability distribution patterns and grain yields for spring maize in Northeast China under climate change

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  • Jin Zhao

    (China Agricultural University)

  • Xiaoguang Yang

    (China Agricultural University)

  • Zhijuan Liu

    (China Agricultural University)

  • Shuo Lv

    (China Agricultural University)

  • Jing Wang

    (Ningxia Institute of Meteorological Sciences)

  • Shuwei Dai

    (University of Nebraska-Lincoln)

Abstract

As climate changes, suitability zones for the cultivation of some crops may shift. In Northeast China (NEC), it is critically important for the agricultural community (e.g. farmers, advisors) to understand the potential shift in suitable cropping zones for spring maize in order to adapt to climate change. The potential climatic suitability can be defined as how actual temperature and solar radiation conditions match the requirements of crop growth under non-limited situations. Here, we used yield potential to reflect the potential climatic suitability, which is determined by the characteristics of crop, solar radiation, temperature, and photoperiod, given the assumption that water, nutrients, pests, and diseases are not limiting the crop growth. We assessed the annual yield potential of spring maize during 1961–2010 in NEC with APSIM-Maize. And then we analyzed the variations in potential climatic suitability zones and the possible effects of these variations on maize production potential. The results show that growing degree-days (GDD) during the growing season for spring maize universally increased in all the locations of this study during the period of 1981–2010 (period II) as compared to the period of 1961–1980 (period I). A total of 66 % of the locations show a decrease in accumulated sunshine duration (ASD) during the growing season during period II as compared to period I. Both coefficient of variation (CV) of GDD and CV of ASD showed an increase during period II as compared to period I. Under the background of climate change, the potential climatic suitability for spring maize was worsened during the most recent five decades: the yield potential declined and the yield stability decreased. In particular, most of the very suitable zone in Jilin and Liaoning during period I turned into suitable or moderately suitable zone during period II. Meanwhile, the total area of marginally suitable zone and no suitable zone increased by 16 % during period II as compared to period I. We detected a close correlation between the decrease in ASD and the decrease in potential climatic suitability, R = 0.56, p

Suggested Citation

  • Jin Zhao & Xiaoguang Yang & Zhijuan Liu & Shuo Lv & Jing Wang & Shuwei Dai, 2016. "Variations in the potential climatic suitability distribution patterns and grain yields for spring maize in Northeast China under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 29-42, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:137:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1652-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1652-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nisar Ahamed, T. R. & Gopal Rao, K. & Murthy, J. S. R., 2000. "GIS-based fuzzy membership model for crop-land suitability analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 75-95, February.
    2. Murat Isik & Stephen Devadoss, 2006. "An analysis of the impact of climate change on crop yields and yield variability," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(7), pages 835-844.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Zhao, Jiongchao & Wang, Chong & Shi, Xiaoyu & Bo, Xiaozhi & Li, Shuo & Shang, Mengfei & Chen, Fu & Chu, Qingquan, 2021. "Modeling climatically suitable areas for soybean and their shifts across China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    3. Li Li & Rundong Feng & Jianchao Xi, 2021. "Ecological Risk Assessment and Protection Zone Identification for Linear Cultural Heritage: A Case Study of the Ming Great Wall," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-18, November.

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