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The impact of climate change on regional water balances in Bangladesh

Author

Listed:
  • J. M. Kirby

    (CSIRO Land and Water)

  • M. Mainuddin

    (CSIRO Land and Water)

  • F. Mpelasoka

    (CSIRO Land and Water)

  • M. D. Ahmad

    (CSIRO Land and Water)

  • W. Palash

    (Tufts University)

  • M.E. Quadir

    (International University of Business Agriculture and Technology Uttara)

  • S. M. Shah-Newaz

    (Institute of Water Modelling)

  • M. M. Hossain

    (Institute of Water Modelling)

Abstract

The probable effect of climate change on the water available for use in Bangladesh is not well known. We calculate monthly water balances for five main regions of Bangladesh to examine the likely impacts of climate change to 2050. We also examine the impact of past and potential future irrigation development. Climate change projections for rainfall in Bangladesh are uncertain, with increased rain in the wet season likely, but decreased rain also possible. Runoff is projected to vary in a manner similar to rainfall. However, assuming no change to the area of crops, all projections result in increases in irrigation water use, which leads to groundwater level declines. The impact of change (whether climate change or development) on water availability and use is greater in the Northwest region than elsewhere. For most water balance terms in most regions, irrigation development (both historic and future) is calculated to have a larger impact than climate change. Climate change is calculated to have a larger impact than irrigation development only on evapotranspiration and runoff, and possibly on groundwater levels. Model sensitivity tests suggest that model uncertainty is less than climate change uncertainty. To reverse lowered groundwater levels, Bangladesh’s policy includes greater use of surface water. While we calculate groundwater levels will rise, the viability of the policy may be affected by future changes to upstream use.

Suggested Citation

  • J. M. Kirby & M. Mainuddin & F. Mpelasoka & M. D. Ahmad & W. Palash & M.E. Quadir & S. M. Shah-Newaz & M. M. Hossain, 2016. "The impact of climate change on regional water balances in Bangladesh," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 481-491, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:135:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1597-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1597-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Animesh Gain & Heiko Apel & Fabrice Renaud & Carlo Giupponi, 2013. "Thresholds of hydrologic flow regime of a river and investigation of climate change impact—the case of the Lower Brahmaputra river Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 463-475, September.
    2. Animesh Gain & Yoshihide Wada, 2014. "Assessment of Future Water Scarcity at Different Spatial and Temporal Scales of the Brahmaputra River Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(4), pages 999-1012, March.
    3. Mobin-ud Ahmad & Mac Kirby & Mohammad Islam & Md. Hossain & Md. Islam, 2014. "Groundwater Use for Irrigation and its Productivity: Status and Opportunities for Crop Intensification for Food Security in Bangladesh," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(5), pages 1415-1429, March.
    4. Shamsuddin Shahid & Manzul Hazarika, 2010. "Groundwater Drought in the Northwestern Districts of Bangladesh," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(10), pages 1989-2006, August.
    5. Kirby, J.M. & Ahmad, M.D. & Mainuddin, M. & Palash, W. & Quadir, M.E. & Shah-Newaz, S.M. & Hossain, M.M., 2015. "The impact of irrigation development on regional groundwater resources in Bangladesh," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 264-276.
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    1. Golam Saleh Ahmed Salem & So Kazama & Shamsuddin Shahid & Nepal C. Dey, 2018. "Groundwater-dependent irrigation costs and benefits for adaptation to global change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(6), pages 953-979, August.
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    4. Amlan Haque & Anita Jahid, 2021. "Climate-change beliefs and resilience to climate change in Bangladesh: is leadership making any difference?," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 11(4), pages 623-638, December.
    5. Mustafa, S.M.T. & Vanuytrecht, E. & Huysmans, M., 2017. "Combined deficit irrigation and soil fertility management on different soil textures to improve wheat yield in drought-prone Bangladesh," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 124-137.
    6. Urfels, Anton & Mausch, Kai & Harris, Dave & McDonald, Andrew J. & Kishore, Avinash & Balwinder-Singh, & van Halsema, Gerardo & Struik, Paul C. & Craufurd, Peter & Foster, Timothy & Singh, Vartika & K, 2023. "Farm size limits agriculture's poverty reduction potential in Eastern India even with irrigation-led intensification," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    7. Rowshon, M.K. & Dlamini, N.S. & Mojid, M.A. & Adib, M.N.M. & Amin, M.S.M. & Lai, S.H., 2019. "Modeling climate-smart decision support system (CSDSS) for analyzing water demand of a large-scale rice irrigation scheme," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 138-152.
    8. Acharjee, Tapos Kumar & Ludwig, Fulco & van Halsema, Gerardo & Hellegers, Petra & Supit, Iwan, 2017. "Future changes in water requirements of Boro rice in the face of climate change in North-West Bangladesh," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 172-183.
    9. Mojid, Mohammad A. & Mainuddin, Mohammed & Murad, Khandakar Faisal Ibn & Kirby, John Mac, 2021. "Water usage trends under intensive groundwater-irrigated agricultural development in a changing climate – Evidence from Bangladesh," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    10. Islam, A.R.M.Towfiqul & Shen, Shuang-He & Yang, Shen-Bin, 2018. "Predicting design water requirement of winter paddy under climate change condition using frequency analysis in Bangladesh," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 58-70.
    11. Md. Arif Chowdhury & Rashed Uz Zzaman & Nusrat Jahan Tarin & Mohammad Jobayer Hossain, 2022. "Spatial variability of climatic hazards in Bangladesh," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(3), pages 2329-2351, February.
    12. Mohamed Mehana & Mohamed Abdelrahman & Yasmin Emadeldin & Jai S. Rohila & Raghupathy Karthikeyan, 2021. "Impact of Genetic Improvements of Rice on Its Water Use and Effects of Climate Variability in Egypt," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-14, September.

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