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Thresholds of hydrologic flow regime of a river and investigation of climate change impact—the case of the Lower Brahmaputra river Basin

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  • Animesh Gain
  • Heiko Apel
  • Fabrice Renaud
  • Carlo Giupponi

Abstract

The sustainability of social-ecological systems depends on river flows being maintained within a range to which those systems are adapted. In order to determine the extent of this natural range of variation, we assess ecological flow thresholds and the occurrence of potentially damaging flood events to society in the context of the Lower Brahmaputra river basin. The ecological flow threshold was calculated using twenty-two ‘Range of Variability (RVA)’ parameters, considering the range between ± 1 standard deviation from the mean of the natural flow. Damaging flood events were calculated using flood frequency analysis of Annual Maxima series and using the flood classification of Bangladesh. The climate change impacts on future river flow were calculated by using a weighted ensemble analysis of twelve global circulation models (GCMs) outputs driving a large-scale hydrologic model. The simulated climate change induced altered flow regime of the Lower Brahmaputra River Basin was then investigated and compared with the calculated threshold flows. The results demonstrate that various parameters including the monthly mean of low flow (January, February and March) and high flow (June, July and August) periods, the 7-day average minimum flow, and the yearly maximum flow will exceed the threshold conditions by 1956–1995 under the business-as-usual A1B and A2 future scenarios. The results have a number of policy level implications for government agencies of the Lower Brahmaputra River Basin, specifically for Bangladesh. The calculated thresholds may be used as a good basis for negotiations with other riparian countries of the basin. The methodological approach presented in this study can be applied to other river basins and provide a useful basis for transboundary water resources management. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

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  • Animesh Gain & Heiko Apel & Fabrice Renaud & Carlo Giupponi, 2013. "Thresholds of hydrologic flow regime of a river and investigation of climate change impact—the case of the Lower Brahmaputra river Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 463-475, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:120:y:2013:i:1:p:463-475
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0800-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James M. Murphy & David M. H. Sexton & David N. Barnett & Gareth S. Jones & Mark J. Webb & Matthew Collins & David A. Stainforth, 2004. "Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations," Nature, Nature, vol. 430(7001), pages 768-772, August.
    2. Sanchita Boruah & S.P. Biswas, 2002. "Ecohydrology and fisheries of the upper Brahmaputra basin," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 119-131, June.
    3. Heiko Apel & Annegret Thieken & Bruno Merz & Günter Blöschl, 2006. "A Probabilistic Modelling System for Assessing Flood Risks," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 38(1), pages 79-100, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. J. M. Kirby & M. Mainuddin & F. Mpelasoka & M. D. Ahmad & W. Palash & M.E. Quadir & S. M. Shah-Newaz & M. M. Hossain, 2016. "The impact of climate change on regional water balances in Bangladesh," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 481-491, April.
    2. Parish, Esther S. & Pracheil, Brenda M. & McManamay, Ryan A. & Curd, Shelaine L. & DeRolph, Christopher R. & Smith, Brennan T., 2019. "Review of environmental metrics used across multiple sectors and geographies to evaluate the effects of hydropower development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 101-118.
    3. Nazmul Huq & Jean Huge & Emmanuel Boon & Animesh A.K. Gain, 2015. "Climate change impacts in agricultural communities in rural areas of coastal bangladesh: A tale of many stories," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/217954, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    4. Animesh Gain & Yoshihide Wada, 2014. "Assessment of Future Water Scarcity at Different Spatial and Temporal Scales of the Brahmaputra River Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(4), pages 999-1012, March.
    5. Xiaoyan Wang & Tao Yang & Michel Wortmann & Pengfei Shi & Fred Hattermann & Anastasia Lobanova & Valentin Aich, 2017. "Analysis of multi-dimensional hydrological alterations under climate change for four major river basins in different climate zones," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 483-498, April.
    6. Nazmul Huq & Jean Hugé & Emmanuel Boon & Animesh K. Gain, 2015. "Climate Change Impacts in Agricultural Communities in Rural Areas of Coastal Bangladesh: A Tale of Many Stories," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(7), pages 1-24, June.

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