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Modelling impacts of climate change on global food security

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  • Terence Dawson
  • Anita Perryman
  • Tom Osborne

Abstract

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimate that nearly 900 million people on the planet are suffering from chronic hunger. This state of affairs led to the making of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals in 2000, having the first goal to “Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger” with a target to halve the proportion of people who suffer from hunger. However, projections of a rapidly growing population, coupled with global climate change, is expected to have significant negative impacts on food security. To investigate this prospect, a modelling framework was developed under the QUEST-GSI programme, which we have termed FEEDME (Food Estimation and Export for Diet and Malnutrition Evaluation). The model uses country-level Food Balance Sheets (FBS) to determine mean calories on a per-capita basis, and a coefficient of variation to account for the degree of inequality in access to food across national populations. Calorific values of individual food items in the FBS of countries were modified by revision of crop yields and population changes under the SRES A1B climate change and social-economic scenarios respectively for 2050, 2085 and 2100. Under a no-climate change scenario, based upon projected changes in population and agricultural land use only, results show that 31 % (2.5 billion people by 2050) of the global population is at risk of undernourishment if no adaptation or agricultural innovation is made in the intervening years. An additional 21 % (1.7 billion people) is at risk of undernourishment by 2050 when climate change is taken into account. However, the model does not account for future trends in technology, improved crop varieties or agricultural trade interventions, although it is clear that all of these adaptation strategies will need to be embraced on a global scale if society is to ensure adequate food supplies for a projected global population of greater than 9 billion people. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Terence Dawson & Anita Perryman & Tom Osborne, 2016. "Modelling impacts of climate change on global food security," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 429-440, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:134:y:2016:i:3:p:429-440
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1277-y
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    1. Geerts, S. & Raes, D. & Garcia, M. & Taboada, C. & Miranda, R. & Cusicanqui, J. & Mhizha, T. & Vacher, J., 2009. "Modeling the potential for closing quinoa yield gaps under varying water availability in the Bolivian Altiplano," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(11), pages 1652-1658, November.
    2. Maxwell, Daniel G., 1996. "Measuring food insecurity: the frequency and severity of "coping strategies"," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 291-303, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rahul Tripathi & B. Dhal & Md Shahid & S. K. Barik & A. D. Nayak & B. Mondal & S. D. Mohapatra & D. Chatterjee & B. Lal & Priyanka Gautam & N. N. Jambhulkar & Nuala Fitton & Pete Smith & T. P. Dawson , 2021. "Agricultural GHG emission and calorie intake nexus among different socioeconomic households of rural eastern India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 11563-11582, August.
    2. Komali Kantamaneni & Louis Rice & Komali Yenneti & Luiza C. Campos, 2020. "Assessing the Vulnerability of Agriculture Systems to Climate Change in Coastal Areas: A Novel Index," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-24, June.
    3. Yibo Luan & Wenquan Zhu & Xuefeng Cui & Günther Fischer & Terence P. Dawson & Peijun Shi & Zhenke Zhang, 2019. "Cropland yield divergence over Africa and its implication for mitigating food insecurity," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 707-734, June.
    4. Yevessé Dandonougbo, 2022. "Impact of non-farm work on agricultural productivity: Empirical evidence from rural smallholder," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(2), pages 458-475.
    5. Anna-Mara Schön & Marita Böhringer, 2023. "Land Consumption for Current Diets Compared with That for the Planetary Health Diet—How Many People Can Our Land Feed?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-35, May.
    6. Zaman, Kazi Arif Uz, 2022. "Regional Cooperation for Improving Agriculture Production Efficiency: A Strategic Tool for Emission Reduction," ADBI Working Papers 1301, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    7. Haseeb Ahmed & Lena-Mari Tamminen & Ulf Emanuelson, 2022. "Temperature, productivity, and heat tolerance: Evidence from Swedish dairy production," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 175(1), pages 1-18, November.
    8. Tamilarasu Arivelarasan & V. S. Manivasagam & Vellingiri Geethalakshmi & Kulanthaivel Bhuvaneswari & Kiruthika Natarajan & Mohan Balasubramanian & Ramasamy Gowtham & Raveendran Muthurajan, 2023. "How Far Will Climate Change Affect Future Food Security? An Inquiry into the Irrigated Rice System of Peninsular India," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-20, February.

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