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Impact of progressive global warming on the global-scale yield of maize and soybean

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  • Gillian Rose
  • Tom Osborne
  • Helen Greatrex
  • Tim Wheeler

Abstract

Global surface temperature is projected to warm over the coming decades, with regional differences expected in temperature change, rainfall and the frequency of extreme events. Temperature is a major determinant of crop growth and development, affecting planting date, growing season length and yield. We investigated the effects of increments of mean global temperature warming from 0.5 °C to 4 °C on soybean and maize development and yield, both globally and for the main producing countries, and simulated adaptation through changing planting date and variety. Increasing temperature resulted in reduced growing season lengths and ultimately reduced yields for both crops. The global yield for maize decreased as temperature increased, although the severity of the decrease was dependent on geographic region. Small temperature increases of 0.5 °C had no effect on soybean yield, although yield decreased as temperature increased. These negative effects, however, were partly compensated for by the implementation of adaptation strategies including planting earlier in the season and changing variety. The degree of compensation was dependent on geographical area and crop, with maize adaptation delaying the negative effects of temperature on yield, compared to soybean adaptation which increased yield in China, India and Korea DPR as well as delaying the effects in the remaining countries. The results of this paper indicate the degree to which farmer-controlled adaptation strategies can alleviate the negative impacts of increasing temperature on two major crop species. Copyright The Author(s) 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Gillian Rose & Tom Osborne & Helen Greatrex & Tim Wheeler, 2016. "Impact of progressive global warming on the global-scale yield of maize and soybean," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 417-428, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:134:y:2016:i:3:p:417-428
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1601-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matthews, R. B. & Kropff, M. J. & Horie, T. & Bachelet, D., 1997. "Simulating the impact of climate change on rice production in Asia and evaluating options for adaptation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 399-425, July.
    2. Ana Iglesias & Luis Garrote & Sonia Quiroga & Marta Moneo, 2012. "A regional comparison of the effects of climate change on agricultural crops in Europe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(1), pages 29-46, May.
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    5. Muhammad Ahtasham Mushtaq & Hafiz Ghulam Muhu-Din Ahmed & Yawen Zeng, 2024. "Applications of Artificial Intelligence in Wheat Breeding for Sustainable Food Security," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-24, July.

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