IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v120y2013i1p389-403.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Regional hydrological cycle changes in response to an ambitious mitigation scenario

Author

Listed:
  • H. Huebener
  • M. Sanderson
  • I. Höschel
  • J. Körper
  • T. Johns
  • J.-F. Royer
  • E. Roeckner
  • E. Manzini
  • J.-L. Dufresne
  • O. Otterå
  • J. Tjiputra
  • D. Salas y Melia
  • M. Giorgetta
  • S. Denvil
  • P. Fogli

Abstract

Climate change impacts on the regional hydrological cycle are compared for model projections following an ambitious emissions-reduction scenario (E1) and a medium-high emissions scenario with no mitigation policy (A1B). The E1 scenario is designed to limit global annual mean warming to 2 °C or less above pre-industrial levels. A multi-model ensemble consisting of ten coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models is analyzed, which includes five Earth System Models containing interactive carbon cycles. The aim of the study is to assess the changes that could be mitigated under the E1 scenario and to identify regions where even small climate change may lead to strong changes in precipitation, cloud cover and evapotranspiration. In these regions the hydrological cycle is considered particularly vulnerable to climate change, highlighting the need for adaptation measures even if strong mitigation of climate change would be achieved. In the A1B projections, there are significant drying trends in sub-tropical regions, precipitation increases in high latitudes and some monsoon regions, as well as changes in cloudiness and evapotranspiration. These signals are reduced in E1 scenario projections. However, even under the E1 scenario, significant precipitation decrease in the subtropics and increase in high latitudes are projected. Particularly the Amazon region shows strong drying tendencies in some models, most probably related to vegetation interaction. Where climate change is relatively small, the E1 scenario tends to keep the average magnitude of potential changes at a level comparable to current intra-seasonal to inter-annual variability at that location. Such regions are mainly located in the mid-latitudes. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • H. Huebener & M. Sanderson & I. Höschel & J. Körper & T. Johns & J.-F. Royer & E. Roeckner & E. Manzini & J.-L. Dufresne & O. Otterå & J. Tjiputra & D. Salas y Melia & M. Giorgetta & S. Denvil & P. Fo, 2013. "Regional hydrological cycle changes in response to an ambitious mitigation scenario," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 389-403, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:120:y:2013:i:1:p:389-403
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0829-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-013-0829-x
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-013-0829-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    2. Noah Diffenbaugh & Filippo Giorgi, 2012. "Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(3), pages 813-822, October.
    3. N. W. Arnell & J. A. Lowe & S. Brown & S. N. Gosling & P. Gottschalk & J. Hinkel & B. Lloyd-Hughes & R. J. Nicholls & T. J. Osborn & T. M. Osborne & G. A. Rose & P. Smith & R. F. Warren, 2013. "A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(5), pages 512-519, May.
    4. Detlef Vuuren & Keywan Riahi, 2011. "The relationship between short-term emissions and long-term concentration targets," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 793-801, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schaeffer, Michiel & Gohar, Laila & Kriegler, Elmar & Lowe, Jason & Riahi, Keywan & van Vuuren, Detlef, 2015. "Mid- and long-term climate projections for fragmented and delayed-action scenarios," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 257-268.
    2. Timothy Osborn & Craig Wallace & Ian Harris & Thomas Melvin, 2016. "Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 353-369, February.
    3. Volker Krey, 2014. "Global energy-climate scenarios and models: a review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(4), pages 363-383, July.
    4. Tokimatsu, Koji & Konishi, Satoshi & Ishihara, Keiichi & Tezuka, Tetsuo & Yasuoka, Rieko & Nishio, Masahiro, 2016. "Role of innovative technologies under the global zero emissions scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1483-1493.
    5. Girod, Bastien & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Deetman, Sebastiaan, 2012. "Global travel within the 2°C climate target," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 152-166.
    6. Francisco J. Moral & Cristina Aguirado & Virginia Alberdi & Luis L. Paniagua & Abelardo García-Martín & Francisco J. Rebollo, 2023. "Future Scenarios for Aridity under Conditions of Global Climate Change in Extremadura, Southwestern Spain," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-13, February.
    7. Timothy J. Osborn & Craig J. Wallace & Ian C. Harris & Thomas M. Melvin, 2016. "Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 353-369, February.
    8. Wang, Zhaohua & Zhang, Hongzhi & Li, Hao & Wang, Bo & Cui, Qi & Zhang, Bin, 2022. "Economic impact and energy transformation of different effort-sharing schemes to pursue 2 ℃ warming limit in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 320(C).
    9. Pedro M. M. Soares & João A. M. Careto & Ana Russo & Daniela C. A. Lima, 2023. "The future of Iberian droughts: a deeper analysis based on multi-scenario and a multi-model ensemble approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(2), pages 2001-2028, June.
    10. Nigel Arnell & Ben Lloyd-Hughes, 2014. "The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 127-140, January.
    11. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    12. Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra & Ameztegui, Aitor & De Cáceres, Miquel & de-Miguel, Sergio & Lefèvre, François & Brotons, Lluís & Coll, Lluís, 2020. "Future trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services in Mediterranean forests under global change scenarios," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    13. Pascalle Smith & Georg Heinrich & Martin Suklitsch & Andreas Gobiet & Markus Stoffel & Jürg Fuhrer, 2014. "Station-scale bias correction and uncertainty analysis for the estimation of irrigation water requirements in the Swiss Rhone catchment under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 521-534, December.
    14. T.M.L. Wigley, 2018. "The Paris warming targets: emissions requirements and sea level consequences," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 31-45, March.
    15. Gong, Ziqian & Baker, Justin S. & Wade, Christopher M. & Havlík, Petr, 2024. "Irrigation intensification in U.S. agriculture under climate change – an adaptation mechanism or trade-induced response?," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343581, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Islam, AFM Tariqul & Islam, AKM Saiful & Islam, GM Tarekul & Bala, Sujit Kumar & Salehin, Mashfiqus & Choudhury, Apurba Kanti & Dey, Nepal C. & Hossain, Akbar, 2022. "Adaptation strategies to increase water productivity of wheat under changing climate," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    17. Hwang, In Chang, 2013. "Stochastic Kaya model and its applications," MPRA Paper 55099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Roson, Roberto & Damania, Richard, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," Conference papers 332687, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    19. Le Bars, Dewi, 2018. "Uncertainty in sea level rise projections due to the dependence between contributors," Earth Arxiv uvw3s, Center for Open Science.
    20. Taylor, Chris & Cullen, Brendan & D'Occhio, Michael & Rickards, Lauren & Eckard, Richard, 2018. "Trends in wheat yields under representative climate futures: Implications for climate adaptation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-10.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:120:y:2013:i:1:p:389-403. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.