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“Agro-meteorological indices and climate model uncertainty over the UK”

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  • A. Harding
  • M. Rivington
  • M. Mineter
  • S. Tett

Abstract

Five stakeholder-relevant indices of agro-meteorological change were analysed for the UK, over past (1961–1990) and future (2061–2090) periods. Accumulated Frosts, Dry Days, Growing Season Length, Plant Heat Stress and Start of Field Operations were calculated from the E-Obs (European Observational) and HadRM3 (Hadley Regional Climate Model) PPE (perturbed physics ensemble) data sets. Indices were compared directly and examined for current and future uncertainty. Biases are quantified in terms of ensemble member climate sensitivity and regional aggregation. Maps of spatial change then provide an appropriate metric for end-users both in terms of their requirements and statistical robustness. A future UK is described with fewer frosts, fewer years with a large number of frosts, an earlier start to field operations (e.g., tillage), fewer occurrences of sporadic rainfall, more instances of high temperatures (in both the mean and upper range), and a much longer growing season. Copyright The Author(s) 2015

Suggested Citation

  • A. Harding & M. Rivington & M. Mineter & S. Tett, 2015. "“Agro-meteorological indices and climate model uncertainty over the UK”," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 113-126, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:128:y:2015:i:1:p:113-126
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1296-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rivington, M. & Matthews, K.B. & Buchan, K. & Miller, D.G. & Bellocchi, G. & Russell, G., 2013. "Climate change impacts and adaptation scope for agriculture indicated by agro-meteorological metrics," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 15-31.
    2. Shilong Piao & Philippe Ciais & Yao Huang & Zehao Shen & Shushi Peng & Junsheng Li & Liping Zhou & Hongyan Liu & Yuecun Ma & Yihui Ding & Pierre Friedlingstein & Chunzhen Liu & Kun Tan & Yongqiang Yu , 2010. "The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 467(7311), pages 43-51, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. N. W. Arnell & A. Freeman, 2021. "The effect of climate change on agro-climatic indicators in the UK," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-26, March.

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