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Probabilistic spatial risk assessment of heat impacts and adaptations for London

Author

Listed:
  • Katie Jenkins
  • Jim Hall
  • Vassilis Glenis
  • Chris Kilsby
  • Mark McCarthy
  • Clare Goodess
  • Duncan Smith
  • Nick Malleson
  • Mark Birkin

Abstract

High temperatures and heatwaves can cause large societal impacts by increasing health risks, mortality rates, and personal discomfort. These impacts are exacerbated in cities because of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, and the high and increasing concentrations of people, assets and economic activities. Risks from high temperatures are now widely recognised but motivation and implementation of proportionate policy responses is inhibited by inadequate quantification of the benefits of adaptation options, and associated uncertainties. This study utilises high spatial resolution probabilistic projections of urban temperatures along with projections of demographic change, to provide a probabilistic risk assessment of heat impacts on urban society. The study focuses on Greater London and the surrounding region, assessing mortality risk, thermal discomfort in residential buildings, and adaptation options within an integrated framework. Climate change is projected to increase future heat-related mortality and residential discomfort. However, adjusting the temperature response function by 1–2 °C, to simulate adaptation and acclimatisation, reduced annual heat related mortality by 32–69 % across the scenarios tested, relative to a no adaptation scenario. Similar benefits of adaptation were seen for residential discomfort. The study also highlights additional benefits in terms of reduced mortality and residential discomfort that mitigating the urban heat island, by reducing albedo and anthropogenic heat emissions, could have. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Katie Jenkins & Jim Hall & Vassilis Glenis & Chris Kilsby & Mark McCarthy & Clare Goodess & Duncan Smith & Nick Malleson & Mark Birkin, 2014. "Probabilistic spatial risk assessment of heat impacts and adaptations for London," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 105-117, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:124:y:2014:i:1:p:105-117
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1105-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Simon Gosling & Jason Lowe & Glenn McGregor & Mark Pelling & Bruce Malamud, 2009. "Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: a critical review of the literature," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 299-341, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jae Young Lee & Woo-Seop Lee & Kristie L. Ebi & Ho Kim, 2019. "Temperature-Related Summer Mortality Under Multiple Climate, Population, and Adaptation Scenarios," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-9, March.
    2. Giovanni Matteo & Pierfrancesco Nardi & Stefano Grego & Caterina Guidi, 2018. "Bibliometric analysis of Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment research," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 508-516, December.
    3. Tao Liu & Zhoupeng Ren & Yonghui Zhang & Baixiang Feng & Hualiang Lin & Jianpeng Xiao & Weilin Zeng & Xing Li & Zhihao Li & Shannon Rutherford & Yanjun Xu & Shao Lin & Philip C. Nasca & Yaodong Du & J, 2019. "Modification Effects of Population Expansion, Ageing, and Adaptation on Heat-Related Mortality Risks Under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Guangzhou, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-17, January.
    4. O. Pritchard & S. Hallett & T. Farewell, 2015. "Probabilistic soil moisture projections to assess Great Britain’s future clay-related subsidence hazard," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(4), pages 635-650, December.
    5. W. J. W. Botzen & M. L. Martinius & P. Bröde & M. A. Folkerts & P. Ignjacevic & F. Estrada & C. N. Harmsen & H. A. M. Daanen, 2020. "Economic valuation of climate change–induced mortality: age dependent cold and heat mortality in the Netherlands," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 545-562, September.
    6. Eliška Krkoška Lorencová & Charlotte E. L. Whitham & Petr Bašta & Zuzana Veronika Harmáčková & Petr Štěpánek & Pavel Zahradníček & Aleš Farda & David Vačkář, 2018. "Participatory Climate Change Impact Assessment in Three Czech Cities: The Case of Heatwaves," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-21, June.

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