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Probabilistic soil moisture projections to assess Great Britain’s future clay-related subsidence hazard

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  • O. Pritchard
  • S. Hallett
  • T. Farewell

Abstract

Clay-related subsidence is Great Britain’s (GB) most damaging soil-related geohazard, costing the economy up to £500 million per annum. Soil-related geohazard models based on mineralogy and potential soil moisture deficit (PSMD) derived from historic weather data have been used in risk management since the 1990s. United Kingdom Climate Projections (UKCP09) suggest that regions of GB will experience hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters through to 2050. As a result, PSMD fluctuations are expected to increase, exacerbating the shrinkage and swelling of clay soils. A forward-looking approach is now required to mitigate the impacts of future climate on GB’s built environment. We present a framework for incorporating probabilistic projections of PSMD, derived from a version of the UKCP09 stochastic weather generator, into a clay subsidence model. This provides a novel, national-scale thematic model of the likelihood of clay-related subsidence, related to the top 1–1.5 m soil layer, for three time periods; baseline (1961–1990), 2030 (2020–2049) and 2050 (2040–2069). Results indicate that much of GB, with the exception of upland areas, will witness significantly higher PSMDs through to the 2050s. As a result, some areas with swelling clay soils will be subject to proportionately increased subsidence hazard. South-east England will likely incur the highest hazard exposure to clay-related subsidence through to 2050. Potential impacts include increased incidence of property foundation subsidence, alongside deterioration and increased failure rates of GB’s infrastructure networks. Future clay-subsidence hazard scenarios are beneficial to many sectors, including: finance, central and local government, residential property markets, utilities and infrastructure operators. Copyright The Author(s) 2015

Suggested Citation

  • O. Pritchard & S. Hallett & T. Farewell, 2015. "Probabilistic soil moisture projections to assess Great Britain’s future clay-related subsidence hazard," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(4), pages 635-650, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:133:y:2015:i:4:p:635-650
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1486-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Katie Jenkins & Jim Hall & Vassilis Glenis & Chris Kilsby & Mark McCarthy & Clare Goodess & Duncan Smith & Nick Malleson & Mark Birkin, 2014. "Probabilistic spatial risk assessment of heat impacts and adaptations for London," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 105-117, May.
    2. A. Kay & R. Jones, 2012. "Comparison of the use of alternative UKCP09 products for modelling the impacts of climate change on flood frequency," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(2), pages 211-230, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wadsworth, Richard & Hallett, Stephen & Sakrabani, Ruben, 2018. "Phosphate acceptance map: A novel approach to match phosphorus content of biosolids with land and crop requirements," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 57-69.
    2. Campbell, G.A & Lilly, A & Corstanje, R. & Mayr, T.R. & Black, H.I.J, 2017. "Are existing soils data meeting the needs of stakeholders in Europe? An analysis of practical use from policy to field," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 211-223.

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