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Biofuel’s carbon balance: doubts, certainties and implications

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  • John DeCicco

Abstract

Liquid fuels will remain valued energy carriers well into any upcoming period when CO 2 reductions are sought. Biofuels are the presumed replacement for the petroleum-based transportation fuels that dominate liquid fuel use. Lifecycle analysis embeds a closed-loop model of biofuel-related carbon flows, making net CO 2 uptake an assumption to be refuted. However, evaluating net CO 2 uptake through dynamic industrial and agriforestry supply chains at real-world commercial scales is extremely difficult. All such estimates carry a great deal of doubt and cannot be verified empirically. A different perspective follows by anchoring analysis in the certainty that end-use CO 2 emissions from biofuels are essentially the same as those of the petroleum fuels they replace. A first-order model of the globally coupled bio- and fossil-fuel system reveals conditions for biofuel use to provide an atmospheric benefit. No benefit occurs in the energy sectors where biofuels are used, but rather must be found elsewhere in locations of carbon absorption or retention. The implication is that climate mitigation efforts should focus on such locations and include any mechanisms through which net uptake (an enhanced sink or verifiable offset) can be achieved by biological, chemical, geological or other means. Although biofuels can play a mitigation role when certain conditions are met, deemphasizing biofuel production in favor of terrestrial carbon management may offer more immediate and effective ways to counterbalance the CO 2 emitted when using carbon-based liquid fuels of any origin. Climate policies for transportation fuels should be reconsidered accordingly. Copyright The Author(s) 2013

Suggested Citation

  • John DeCicco, 2013. "Biofuel’s carbon balance: doubts, certainties and implications," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(4), pages 801-814, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:121:y:2013:i:4:p:801-814
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0927-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. DeCicco, John M., 2013. "Factoring the car-climate challenge: Insights and implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 382-392.
    2. van Vuuren, Detlef P. & van Vliet, Jasper & Stehfest, Elke, 2009. "Future bio-energy potential under various natural constraints," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4220-4230, November.
    3. John DeCicco, 2012. "Biofuels and carbon management," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(3), pages 627-640, April.
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    1. John M. DeCicco, 2017. "Author’s response to commentary on “Carbon balance effects of U.S. biofuel production and use”," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 123-129, September.
    2. Yeh, Sonia & Witcover, Julie & Lade, Gabriel E. & Sperling, Daniel, 2016. "A review of low carbon fuel policies: Principles, program status and future directions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 220-234.
    3. Robert D. De Kleine & Timothy J. Wallington & James E. Anderson & Hyung Chul Kim, 2017. "Commentary on “carbon balance effects of US biofuel production and use,” by DeCicco et al. (2016)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 111-119, September.
    4. Correa, Diego F. & Beyer, Hawthorne L. & Fargione, Joseph E. & Hill, Jason D. & Possingham, Hugh P. & Thomas-Hall, Skye R. & Schenk, Peer M., 2019. "Towards the implementation of sustainable biofuel production systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 250-263.
    5. John M. DeCicco & Danielle Yuqiao Liu & Joonghyeok Heo & Rashmi Krishnan & Angelika Kurthen & Louise Wang, 2016. "Carbon balance effects of U.S. biofuel production and use," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(3), pages 667-680, October.
    6. Morrison, Geoff M. & Witcover, Julie & Parker, Nathan C. & Fulton, Lew, 2016. "Three routes forward for biofuels: Incremental, leapfrog, and transitional," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 64-73.
    7. Plevin, Richard J. & Delucchi, Mark A. & O’Hare, Michael, 2017. "Fuel carbon intensity standards may not mitigate climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 93-97.
    8. John M. DeCicco, 2015. "The liquid carbon challenge: evolving views on transportation fuels and climate," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(1), pages 98-114, January.
    9. John M. DeCicco, 2018. "Methodological Issues Regarding Biofuels and Carbon Uptake," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-15, May.
    10. Fulton, Lew & Morrison, Geoff & Parker, Nathan & Witcover, Julie & Sperling, Dan, 2014. "Three Routes Forward For Biofuels: Incremental, Transitional, and Leapfrog," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt3pp0g4fb, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.

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