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How does the interplay between resource availability, intersectoral competition and reliability affect a low-carbon power generation mix in Brazil for 2050?

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  • Lap, Tjerk
  • Benders, René
  • van der Hilst, Floor
  • Faaij, André

Abstract

Increasing penetration of solar and wind energy can reduce the reliability of power generation systems. This can be mitigated by e.g.; low-carbon dispatchable hydropower and baseload biomass power plants. However, long-term supply potential for those sources is often uncertain, and biomass can also be used for biofuel production. The purpose of this study is to assess the interplay between uncertain supply potential of biomass and hydropower, intersectoral competition and reliability on a low carbon power system for 2050, with Brazil as case study, using a soft-link between an energy model and a power system model. Hydropower acts as a balancing agent for solar and wind energy, even under lower hydropower supply potential. When less biomass is available, low carbon transportation is met more with electric cars instead of ethanol cars, leading to an increase in electric load for charging their batteries. The charging strategy determines whether peak load increases substantially; after commuting, or lowers; in off-peak hours. This shows the importance of using a soft-link between the high temporal resolution power system model to assess the reliability, and a least cost-optimization model to assess the interplay between resource availability and intersectoral competition of low-carbon power systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Lap, Tjerk & Benders, René & van der Hilst, Floor & Faaij, André, 2020. "How does the interplay between resource availability, intersectoral competition and reliability affect a low-carbon power generation mix in Brazil for 2050?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:195:y:2020:i:c:s0360544220300554
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.116948
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    2. Mehdi Jahangir Samet & Heikki Liimatainen & Oscar Patrick René van Vliet & Markus Pöllänen, 2021. "Road Freight Transport Electrification Potential by Using Battery Electric Trucks in Finland and Switzerland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-22, February.
    3. Ahmed Younis & René Benders & Jezabel Ramírez & Merlijn de Wolf & André Faaij, 2022. "Scrutinizing the Intermittency of Renewable Energy in a Long-Term Planning Model via Combining Direct Integration and Soft-Linking Methods for Colombia’s Power System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-24, October.
    4. Glyniadakis, Sofia & Balestieri, José Antônio Perrella, 2023. "Brazilian light vehicle fleet decarbonization scenarios for 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    5. André P. C. Faaij, 2022. "Repairing What Policy Is Missing Out on: A Constructive View on Prospects and Preconditions for Sustainable Biobased Economy Options to Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Change," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-25, August.
    6. Brumana, Giovanni & Franchini, Giuseppe & Ghirardi, Elisa & Perdichizzi, Antonio, 2022. "Techno-economic optimization of hybrid power generation systems: A renewables community case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).

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