IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v5y2013i5p2129-2151d25627.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of Climate, CO 2 and Population on Regional Food and Water Resources in the 2050s

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew J. Wiltshire

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK)

  • Gillian Kay

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK)

  • Jemma L. Gornall

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK)

  • Richard A. Betts

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK)

Abstract

Population growth and climate change are likely to impact upon food and water availability over the coming decades. In this study we use an ensemble of climate simulations to project the implications of both these drivers on regional changes in food and water. This study highlights the dominant effect of population growth on per capita resource allocation over climate induced changes in our model projections. We find a strong signal for crop yield reductions due to climate change by the 2050s in the absence of CO 2 fertilisation effects. However, when these additional processes are included this trend is reversed. The impacts of climate on water resources are more uncertain. Overall, we find reductions in the global population living in water stressed conditions due to the combined effects of climate and CO 2 . Africa is a key region where projected decreases in runoff and crop productivity from climate change alone are potentially reversed when CO 2 fertilisation effects are included, but this is highly uncertain. Plant physiological response to increasing atmospheric CO 2 is a major driver of the changes in crop productivity and water availability in this study; it is poorly constrained by observations and is thus a critical uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew J. Wiltshire & Gillian Kay & Jemma L. Gornall & Richard A. Betts, 2013. "The Impact of Climate, CO 2 and Population on Regional Food and Water Resources in the 2050s," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(5), pages 1-23, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:5:y:2013:i:5:p:2129-2151:d:25627
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/5/5/2129/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/5/5/2129/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Md. Islam & Taikan Oki & Shinjiro Kanae & Naota Hanasaki & Yasushi Agata & Kei Yoshimura, 2007. "A grid-based assessment of global water scarcity including virtual water trading," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(1), pages 19-33, January.
    2. J. Pongratz & D. B. Lobell & L. Cao & K. Caldeira, 2012. "Crop yields in a geoengineered climate," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(2), pages 101-105, February.
    3. S. Sitch & P. M. Cox & W. J. Collins & C. Huntingford, 2007. "Indirect radiative forcing of climate change through ozone effects on the land-carbon sink," Nature, Nature, vol. 448(7155), pages 791-794, August.
    4. Molden, David, 2007. "Water for food, water for life: a comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture: summary. In Russian," IWMI Books, Reports H041260, International Water Management Institute.
    5. Hanjra, Munir A. & Qureshi, M. Ejaz, 2010. "Global water crisis and future food security in an era of climate change," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 365-377, October.
    6. James M. Murphy & David M. H. Sexton & David N. Barnett & Gareth S. Jones & Mark J. Webb & Matthew Collins & David A. Stainforth, 2004. "Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations," Nature, Nature, vol. 430(7001), pages 768-772, August.
    7. Molden, David & Oweis, Theib & Steduto, Pasquale & Bindraban, Prem & Hanjra, Munir A. & Kijne, Jacob, 2010. "Improving agricultural water productivity: Between optimism and caution," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(4), pages 528-535, April.
    8. Molden, David & Oweis, T. Y. & Pasquale, S. & Kijne, Jacob W. & Hanjra, M. A. & Bindraban, P. S. & Bouman, Bas A. M. & Cook, S. & Erenstein, O. & Farahani, H. & Hachum, A. & Hoogeveen, J. & Mahoo, Hen, 2007. "Pathways for increasing agricultural water productivity," Book Chapters,, International Water Management Institute.
    9. Molden, David, 2007. "Water for food, water for life: a comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture," IWMI Books, Reports H040193, International Water Management Institute.
    10. Wolfgang Lutz & Warren Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2008. "The coming acceleration of global population ageing," Nature, Nature, vol. 451(7179), pages 716-719, February.
    11. Marc L. Imhoff & Lahouari Bounoua & Taylor Ricketts & Colby Loucks & Robert Harriss & William T. Lawrence, 2004. "Global patterns in human consumption of net primary production," Nature, Nature, vol. 429(6994), pages 870-873, June.
    12. Molden, David, 2007. "Water for food, water for life: a comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture: summary," IWMI Books, Reports H039769, International Water Management Institute.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mekonnen, Dawit & Abate, Gashaw & Yimam, Seid, 2021. "Irrigation and Agricultural Transformation in Ethiopia," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315339, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Mark J. Hovenden & Paul C. D. Newton, 2018. "Variability in precipitation seasonality limits grassland biomass responses to rising CO2: historical and projected climate analyses," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(2), pages 219-231, July.
    3. Zhihui Li & Xiangzheng Deng & Feng Wu & Shaikh Shamim Hasan, 2015. "Scenario Analysis for Water Resources in Response to Land Use Change in the Middle and Upper Reaches of the Heihe River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-23, March.
    4. Dae-Ho Jung & Jung-Eek Son, 2021. "CO 2 Utilization Strategy for Sustainable Cultivation of Mushrooms and Lettuces," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-11, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zwart, Sander J. & Bastiaanssen, Wim G.M. & de Fraiture, Charlotte & Molden, David J., 2010. "WATPRO: A remote sensing based model for mapping water productivity of wheat," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(10), pages 1628-1636, October.
    2. Zwart, Sander J. & Bastiaanssen, Wim G.M. & de Fraiture, Charlotte & Molden, David J., 2010. "A global benchmark map of water productivity for rainfed and irrigated wheat," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(10), pages 1617-1627, October.
    3. Muthuwatta, L.P. & Rientjes, T.H.M. & Bos, M.G., 2013. "Strategies to increase wheat production in the water scarce Karkheh River Basin, Iran," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 1-10.
    4. Lankford, B. & Makin, Ian & Matthews, N. & McCornick, Peter G. & Noble, A. & Shah, Tushaar, "undated". "A compact to revitalise large-scale irrigation systems using a leadership-partnership-ownership 'Theory of Change'," Papers published in Journals (Open Access) H047459, International Water Management Institute.
    5. Bossio, Deborah & Geheb, Kim & Critchley, William, 2010. "Managing water by managing land: Addressing land degradation to improve water productivity and rural livelihoods," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(4), pages 536-542, April.
    6. Feng Huang & Baoguo Li, 2020. "What is the Redline Water Withdrawal for Crop Production in China?—Projection to 2030 Derived from the Past Twenty-Year Trajectory," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-14, May.
    7. Haileslassie, Amare & Peden, Don & Gebreselassie, Solomon & Amede, Tilahun & Descheemaeker, Katrien, 2009. "Livestock water productivity in mixed crop-livestock farming systems of the Blue Nile basin: Assessing variability and prospects for improvement," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 102(1-3), pages 33-40, October.
    8. Tarjuelo, José M. & Rodriguez-Diaz, Juan A. & Abadía, Ricardo & Camacho, Emilio & Rocamora, Carmen & Moreno, Miguel A., 2015. "Efficient water and energy use in irrigation modernization: Lessons from Spanish case studies," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 67-77.
    9. Sharma, Bharat & Molden, D. & Cook, Simon, 2015. "Water use efficiency in agriculture: measurement, current situation and trends," Book Chapters,, International Water Management Institute.
    10. Sharma, Bharat & Molden, D. & Cook, Simon, 2015. "Water use efficiency in agriculture: measurement, current situation and trends," IWMI Books, Reports H046807, International Water Management Institute.
    11. Molden, David & Oweis, Theib & Steduto, Pasquale & Bindraban, Prem & Hanjra, Munir A. & Kijne, Jacob, 2010. "Improving agricultural water productivity: Between optimism and caution," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(4), pages 528-535, April.
    12. Maria Vrachioli & Spiro E. Stefanou & Vangelis Tzouvelekas, 2021. "Impact Evaluation of Alternative Irrigation Technology in Crete: Correcting for Selectivity Bias," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 79(3), pages 551-574, July.
    13. de Fraiture, Charlotte & Molden, David & Wichelns, Dennis, 2010. "Investing in water for food, ecosystems, and livelihoods: An overview of the comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(4), pages 495-501, April.
    14. World Bank [WB], 2016. "High and Dry : Climate Change, Water, and the Economy," Working Papers id:10736, eSocialSciences.
    15. Hanjra, Munir A. & Ferede, Tadele & Gutta, Debel Gemechu, 2009. "Pathways to breaking the poverty trap in Ethiopia: Investments in agricultural water, education, and markets," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(11), pages 1596-1604, November.
    16. de Fraiture, Charlotte & Wichelns, Dennis, 2010. "Satisfying future water demands for agriculture," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(4), pages 502-511, April.
    17. Mailhol, J.-C. & Albasha, R. & Cheviron, B. & Lopez, J.-M. & Ruelle, P. & Dejean, C., 2018. "The PILOTE-N model for improving water and nitrogen management practices: Application in a Mediterranean context," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 162-179.
    18. Turral, Hugh & Svendsen, Mark & Faures, Jean Marc, 2010. "Investing in irrigation: Reviewing the past and looking to the future," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(4), pages 551-560, April.
    19. Amarasinghe, Upali A. & Smakhtin, Vladimir, 2014. "Global water demand projections: past, present and future," IWMI Reports 201006, International Water Management Institute.
    20. Hosterman, H. R., 2009. "Water, climate change, and adaptation: focus on the Ganges River Basin," IWMI Working Papers H042415, International Water Management Institute.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:5:y:2013:i:5:p:2129-2151:d:25627. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.