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Impact of terminal heat stress on wheat yield in India and options for adaptation

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  • Dubey, Rachana
  • Pathak, Himanshu
  • Chakrabarti, Bidisha
  • Singh, Shivdhar
  • Gupta, Dipak Kumar
  • Harit, R.C.

Abstract

The effect of climate change is being observed in India in the form of shorter winter coupled with commencement of summer quite earlier than normal. The proximity of equator and late sowing of wheat (due to late harvesting of rice) exposes the wheat crop (Triticum aestivum L.) to high temperature stress during grain filling stage leading to terminal heat stress in the crop and reduced yield. There are limited studies done till date in India to assess the long term impact of climate variability on wheat yield and to develop adaptation strategies to reduce its negative impact. Therefore, in this study, simulation model (InfoCrop) and field experiment was used to assess the impacts of terminal heat stress on growth and yield of wheat as well as to identify adaptation strategies. Simulated results showed that terminal heat stress will reduce wheat yield by 18.1%, 16.1% and 11.1%, respectively in present, 2020 and 2050 scenarios. Advancement in sowing date, application of additional dose of nitrogen and irrigation at grain filling stage were found suitable options for preventing yield loss. Among various combinations of adaptation options, early sowing by 10 days from recommended sowing date with 30 kg ha−1 additional nitrogen fertilizer and one additional irrigation at grain filling stage was found most suitable. Adaptation of these strategies will help in reducing impact of heat stress by 7.5, 6.4 and 9% respectively in present, 2020 and 2050 heat stressed scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Dubey, Rachana & Pathak, Himanshu & Chakrabarti, Bidisha & Singh, Shivdhar & Gupta, Dipak Kumar & Harit, R.C., 2020. "Impact of terminal heat stress on wheat yield in India and options for adaptation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:181:y:2020:i:c:s0308521x19305372
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2020.102826
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aggarwal, P.K. & Banerjee, B. & Daryaei, M.G. & Bhatia, A. & Bala, A. & Rani, S. & Chander, S. & Pathak, H. & Kalra, N., 2006. "InfoCrop: A dynamic simulation model for the assessment of crop yields, losses due to pests, and environmental impact of agro-ecosystems in tropical environments. II. Performance of the model," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 47-67, July.
    2. Aggarwal, P.K. & Kalra, N. & Chander, S. & Pathak, H., 2006. "InfoCrop: A dynamic simulation model for the assessment of crop yields, losses due to pests, and environmental impact of agro-ecosystems in tropical environments. I. Model description," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 1-25, July.
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    4. Vyas, Shalika & Dalhaus, Tobias & Meuwissen, Miranda P.M. & Aggarwal, Pramod & Kropff, Martin & Ramirez-Villegas, Julian, 2022. "Response of climate-smart agriculture to weather shocks," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322327, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Devkota, Mina & Devkota, Krishna Prasad & Paudel, Gokul Prasad & Krupnik, Timothy J. & McDonald, Andrew James, 2024. "Opportunities to close wheat yield gaps in Nepal's Terai: Insights from field surveys, on-farm experiments, and simulation modeling," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    6. Paudel, Gokul P. & Chamberlin, Jordan & Nguyen, Trung Thanh, 2024. "Can sustainable intensification boost agricultural productivity and fertilizer use efficiency? Insights from wheat systems in the eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains," IAAE 2024 Conference, August 2-7, 2024, New Delhi, India 344263, International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE).
    7. T. S. Amjath-Babu & Timothy J. Krupnik & Shakuntala H. Thilsted & Andrew J. McDonald, 2020. "Key indicators for monitoring food system disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from Bangladesh towards effective response," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(4), pages 761-768, August.
    8. Wang, Xiaobo & Wang, Shaoqiang & Folberth, Christian & Skalsky, Rastislav & Li, Hui & Liu, Yuanyuan & Balkovic, Juraj, 2024. "Limiting global warming to 2 °C benefits building climate resilience in rice-wheat systems in India through crop calendar management," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    9. Satyendra Kumar & Bhaskar Narjary & Vivekanand & Adlul Islam & R. K. Yadav & S. K. Kamra, 2022. "Modeling climate change impact on groundwater and adaptation strategies for its sustainable management in the Karnal district of Northwest India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-30, July.

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