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Climate change and coconut plantations in India: Impacts and potential adaptation gains

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  • Naresh Kumar, S.
  • Aggarwal, P.K.

Abstract

The assessment of impact of climate change on coconut, a plantation crop, is challenging. However, the development of a simulation model (InfoCrop-COCONUT) has enabled the process. We present the first simulation analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on coconut productivity in India following two approaches, namely: (i) ‘fixed increase in temperature and CO2, and (ii) scenarios as per PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) – a regional climate model. Impact of changed management on coconut productivity in current as well as in future climates is also assessed. Climate change is projected to increase coconut productivity in western coastal region, Kerala, parts of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra (provided current level of water and management is made available in future climates as well) and also in North-Eastern states, islands of Andaman and Nicobar and Lakshadweep while negative impacts are projected for Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, West Bengal, Gujarat and parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. On all India basis, even with current management, climate change is projected to increase coconut productivity by 4.3% in A1B 2030, 1.9% in A1B 2080, 6.8% in A2 2080 and 5.7% in B2 2080 scenarios of PRECIS over mean productivity of 2000–2005 period. Agronomic adaptations like soil moisture conservation, summer irrigation, drip irrigation, and fertilizer application cannot only minimize losses in majority of coconut growing regions, but also improve productivity substantially. Further, genetic adaptation measures like growing improved local Tall cultivars and hybrids under improved crop management is needed for long-term adaptation of plantation to climate change, particularly in regions that are projected to be negatively impacted by climate change. Such strategy can increase the productivity by about 33% in 2030, and by 25–32% in 2080 climate scenarios. In fact, productivity can be improved by 20% to almost double if all plantations in India are provided with above mentioned management even in current climates. In places where positive impacts are projected, current poor management may become a limiting factor in reaping the benefits of CO2 fertilization, while in negatively affected regions adaptation strategies can reduce the impacts. Thus, intensive genetic and agronomic adaptation to climate change can substantially benefit the coconut production in India.

Suggested Citation

  • Naresh Kumar, S. & Aggarwal, P.K., 2013. "Climate change and coconut plantations in India: Impacts and potential adaptation gains," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 45-54.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:117:y:2013:i:c:p:45-54
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2013.01.001
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    1. Aggarwal, P.K. & Banerjee, B. & Daryaei, M.G. & Bhatia, A. & Bala, A. & Rani, S. & Chander, S. & Pathak, H. & Kalra, N., 2006. "InfoCrop: A dynamic simulation model for the assessment of crop yields, losses due to pests, and environmental impact of agro-ecosystems in tropical environments. II. Performance of the model," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 47-67, July.
    2. Aggarwal, P.K. & Kalra, N. & Chander, S. & Pathak, H., 2006. "InfoCrop: A dynamic simulation model for the assessment of crop yields, losses due to pests, and environmental impact of agro-ecosystems in tropical environments. I. Model description," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 1-25, July.
    3. Kattarkandi Byjesh & Soora Kumar & Pramod Aggarwal, 2010. "Simulating impacts, potential adaptation and vulnerability of maize to climate change in India," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 15(5), pages 413-431, June.
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    2. Prabhu Pingali & Anaka Aiyar & Mathew Abraham & Andaleeb Rahman, 2019. "Transforming Food Systems for a Rising India," Palgrave Studies in Agricultural Economics and Food Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-3-030-14409-8, November.
    3. Pathiraja, Erandathie & Griffith, Garry & Farquharson, Robert & Faggia, Rob, 2019. "The Cost of Climate Change to Agricultural Industries: Coconuts in Sri Lanka," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 10(05), December.
    4. Bikram Pratim Bhuyan & Ravi Tomar & T. P. Singh & Amar Ramdane Cherif, 2022. "Crop Type Prediction: A Statistical and Machine Learning Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    5. Hemalatha Palanivel & Shipra Shah, 2021. "Unlocking the inherent potential of plant genetic resources: food security and climate adaptation strategy in Fiji and the Pacific," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(10), pages 14264-14323, October.
    6. Pathiraja, Erandathie & Griffith, Garry & Farquharson, Bob & Faggian, Rob, 2017. "The Economic Cost of Climate Change and the Benefits from Investments in Adaptation Options for Sri Lankan Coconut Value Chains," 2018 International European Forum (163rd EAAE Seminar), February 5-9, 2018, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 276938, International European Forum on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks.
    7. Raju Mandal & Hiranya Nath, 2017. "Climate Change and indian Agriculture: Impacts on Crop Yield," Working Papers 1705, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
    8. Jessie Lin & Insa Flachsbarth & Stephan von Cramon‐Taubadel, 2020. "The role of institutional quality on the performance in the export of coconut products," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(2), pages 237-258, March.
    9. Shirsath, Paresh B. & Aggarwal, P.K. & Thornton, P.K. & Dunnett, A., 2017. "Prioritizing climate-smart agricultural land use options at a regional scale," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 174-183.
    10. Pathiraja, Erandathie & Griffith, Garry & Farquharson, Bob & Faggian, Rob, 2017. "The Economic Cost of Climate Change and the Benefits from Investments in Adaptation Options for Sri Lankan Coconut Value Chains," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 2017(1), June.

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