IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/annopr/v341y2024i1d10.1007_s10479-022-04631-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

B2Boost: instance-dependent profit-driven modelling of B2B churn

Author

Listed:
  • Bram Janssens

    (Ghent University)

  • Matthias Bogaert

    (Ghent University
    FlandersMake@UGent–corelab CVAMO)

  • Astrid Bagué

    (Ghent University)

  • Dirk Van den Poel

    (Ghent University
    FlandersMake@UGent–corelab CVAMO)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to enhance current practices in business-to-business (B2B) customer churn prediction modelling. Following the recent trend from accuracy-based to profit-driven evaluation business-to-customer churn prediction, we present a novel expected maximum profit measure for B2B customer churn (EMPB), which is used to demonstrate how current practices are suboptimal due to large discrepancies in customer value. To directly incorporate the heterogeneity of customer values and profit concerns of the company, we propose an instance-dependent profit maximizing classifier based on gradient boosting, named B2Boost. The main innovation of B2Boost is the fact that it considers these differences and incorporates them into the model construction by maximizing the objective function in terms of the EMPB. The results indicate that the expected maximal profit gains made in our analyses are substantial. This study arguments towards both deploying models based on customer-specific profitability differences, as well as evaluating based on our instance-dependent EMPB measure.

Suggested Citation

  • Bram Janssens & Matthias Bogaert & Astrid Bagué & Dirk Van den Poel, 2024. "B2Boost: instance-dependent profit-driven modelling of B2B churn," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 341(1), pages 267-293, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:341:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-022-04631-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-022-04631-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10479-022-04631-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10479-022-04631-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. Robert Baum & Stefan Wally, 2003. "Strategic decision speed and firm performance," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(11), pages 1107-1129, November.
    2. Arno de Caigny & Kristof Coussement & Wouter Verbeke & Khaoula Idbenjra & Minh Phan, 2021. "Uplift modeling and its implications for B2B customer churn prediction: A segmentation-based modeling approach," Post-Print hal-03599615, HAL.
    3. Maldonado, Sebastián & Domínguez, Gonzalo & Olaya, Diego & Verbeke, Wouter, 2021. "Profit-driven churn prediction for the mutual fund industry: A multisegment approach," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    4. Maldonado, Sebastián & López, Julio & Vairetti, Carla, 2020. "Profit-based churn prediction based on Minimax Probability Machines," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(1), pages 273-284.
    5. Eva Ascarza & Oded Netzer & Bruce G. S. Hardie, 2018. "Some Customers Would Rather Leave Without Saying Goodbye," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(1), pages 54-77, January.
    6. Höppner, Sebastiaan & Stripling, Eugen & Baesens, Bart & Broucke, Seppe vanden & Verdonck, Tim, 2020. "Profit driven decision trees for churn prediction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(3), pages 920-933.
    7. Eva Ascarza & Scott A. Neslin & Oded Netzer & Zachery Anderson & Peter S. Fader & Sunil Gupta & Bruce G. S. Hardie & Aurélie Lemmens & Barak Libai & David Neal & Foster Provost & Rom Schrift, 2018. "In Pursuit of Enhanced Customer Retention Management: Review, Key Issues, and Future Directions," Customer Needs and Solutions, Springer;Institute for Sustainable Innovation and Growth (iSIG), vol. 5(1), pages 65-81, March.
    8. Rauyruen, Papassapa & Miller, Kenneth E., 2007. "Relationship quality as a predictor of B2B customer loyalty," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 21-31, January.
    9. Aurélie Lemmens & Sunil Gupta, 2020. "Managing Churn to Maximize Profits," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(5), pages 956-973, September.
    10. B. Larivière & D. Van Den Poel, 2004. "Investigating the role of product features in preventing customer churn, by using survival analysis and choice modeling: The case of financial services," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/223, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    11. Buckinx, Wouter & Van den Poel, Dirk, 2005. "Customer base analysis: partial defection of behaviourally loyal clients in a non-contractual FMCG retail setting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 252-268, July.
    12. Arno de Caigny & Kristof Coussement & Koen W. de Bock, 2018. "A new hybrid classification algorithm for customer churn prediction based on logistic regression and decision trees," Post-Print hal-01741661, HAL.
    13. M. Ballings & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "The Relevant Length of Customer Event History for Churn Prediction: How long is long enough?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/804, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    14. De Caigny, Arno & Coussement, Kristof & De Bock, Koen W., 2018. "A new hybrid classification algorithm for customer churn prediction based on logistic regression and decision trees," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 269(2), pages 760-772.
    15. Verbeke, Wouter & Dejaeger, Karel & Martens, David & Hur, Joon & Baesens, Bart, 2012. "New insights into churn prediction in the telecommunication sector: A profit driven data mining approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 211-229.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gattermann-Itschert, Theresa & Thonemann, Ulrich W., 2021. "How training on multiple time slices improves performance in churn prediction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(2), pages 664-674.
    2. Chou, Ping & Chuang, Howard Hao-Chun & Chou, Yen-Chun & Liang, Ting-Peng, 2022. "Predictive analytics for customer repurchase: Interdisciplinary integration of buy till you die modeling and machine learning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 296(2), pages 635-651.
    3. Matthias Bogaert & Lex Delaere, 2023. "Ensemble Methods in Customer Churn Prediction: A Comparative Analysis of the State-of-the-Art," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-28, February.
    4. Liu, Zhenkun & Zhang, Ying & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Wang, Jianzhou & Yang, Hufang & Gao, Yuyang & Chen, Yinghao, 2024. "Profit-driven fusion framework based on bagging and boosting classifiers for potential purchaser prediction," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Liu, Zhenkun & Jiang, Ping & De Bock, Koen W. & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhang, Lifang & Niu, Xinsong, 2024. "Extreme gradient boosting trees with efficient Bayesian optimization for profit-driven customer churn prediction," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    6. Koen W. de Bock & Arno de Caigny, 2021. "Spline-rule ensemble classifiers with structured sparsity regularization for interpretable customer churn modeling," Post-Print hal-03391564, HAL.
    7. Arno de Caigny & Kristof Coussement & Koen de Bock, 2020. "Leveraging fine-grained transaction data for customer life event predictions," Post-Print hal-02507998, HAL.
    8. De Bock, Koen W. & Coussement, Kristof & Caigny, Arno De & Słowiński, Roman & Baesens, Bart & Boute, Robert N. & Choi, Tsan-Ming & Delen, Dursun & Kraus, Mathias & Lessmann, Stefan & Maldonado, Sebast, 2024. "Explainable AI for Operational Research: A defining framework, methods, applications, and a research agenda," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 317(2), pages 249-272.
    9. Koen W. de Bock & Kristof Coussement & Arno De Caigny & Roman Slowiński & Bart Baesens & Robert N Boute & Tsan-Ming Choi & Dursun Delen & Mathias Kraus & Stefan Lessmann & Sebastián Maldonado & David , 2023. "Explainable AI for Operational Research: A Defining Framework, Methods, Applications, and a Research Agenda," Post-Print hal-04219546, HAL.
    10. Haupt, Johannes & Lessmann, Stefan, 2022. "Targeting customers under response-dependent costs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 297(1), pages 369-379.
    11. Chen, Claire Y.T. & Sun, Edward W. & Miao, Wanyu & Lin, Yi-Bing, 2024. "Reconciling business analytics with graphically initialized subspace clustering for optimal nonlinear pricing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 312(3), pages 1086-1107.
    12. Chandrasekhar Valluri & Sudhakar Raju & Vivek H. Patil, 2022. "Customer determinants of used auto loan churn: comparing predictive performance using machine learning techniques," Journal of Marketing Analytics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(3), pages 279-296, September.
    13. Schaeffer, Satu Elisa & Rodriguez Sanchez, Sara Veronica, 2020. "Forecasting client retention — A machine-learning approach," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    14. De Caigny, Arno & Coussement, Kristof & De Bock, Koen W. & Lessmann, Stefan, 2020. "Incorporating textual information in customer churn prediction models based on a convolutional neural network," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1563-1578.
    15. Narendra Singh & Pushpa Singh & Mukul Gupta, 2020. "An inclusive survey on machine learning for CRM: a paradigm shift," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 47(4), pages 447-457, December.
    16. Lewlisa Saha & Hrudaya Kumar Tripathy & Tarek Gaber & Hatem El-Gohary & El-Sayed M. El-kenawy, 2023. "Deep Churn Prediction Method for Telecommunication Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-21, March.
    17. Tianyuan Zhang & Sérgio Moro & Ricardo F. Ramos, 2022. "A Data-Driven Approach to Improve Customer Churn Prediction Based on Telecom Customer Segmentation," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-19, March.
    18. Uner, M.Mithat & Guven, Faruk & Cavusgil, S.Tamer, 2020. "Churn and loyalty behavior of Turkish digital natives: Empirical insights and managerial implications," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    19. Hemlata Jain & Ajay Khunteta & Sumit Srivastava, 2021. "Telecom churn prediction and used techniques, datasets and performance measures: a review," Telecommunication Systems: Modelling, Analysis, Design and Management, Springer, vol. 76(4), pages 613-630, April.
    20. Arno de Caigny & Kristof Coussement & Koen W. de Bock & Stefan Lessmann, 2019. "Incorporating textual information in customer churn prediction models based on a convolutional neural network," Post-Print hal-02275958, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:341:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-022-04631-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.