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Importance sampling for Kolmogorov backward equations

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  • Hermann Singer

Abstract

The solution of the Kolmogorov backward equation is expressed as a functional integral by means of the Feynman–Kac formula. The expectation value is approximated as a mean over trajectories. In order to reduce the variance of the estimate, importance sampling is utilized. From the optimal importance density, a modified drift function is derived which is used to simulate optimal trajectories from an Itô equation. The method is applied to option pricing and the simulation of transition densities and likelihoods for diffusion processes. The results are compared to known exact solutions and results obtained by numerical integration of the path integral using Euler transition kernels. The importance sampling leads to strong variance reduction, even if the unknown solution appearing in the drift is replaced by known reference solutions. In models with low-dimensional state space, the numerical integration method is more efficient, but in higher dimensions it soon becomes infeasible, whereas the Monte Carlo method still works. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Hermann Singer, 2014. "Importance sampling for Kolmogorov backward equations," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 98(4), pages 345-369, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:alstar:v:98:y:2014:i:4:p:345-369
    DOI: 10.1007/s10182-013-0223-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hermann Singer, 2003. "Simulated Maximum Likelihood in Nonlinear Continuous-Discrete State Space Models: Importance Sampling by Approximate Smoothing," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 79-106, March.
    2. Alexandros Beskos & Omiros Papaspiliopoulos & Gareth O. Roberts & Paul Fearnhead, 2006. "Exact and computationally efficient likelihood‐based estimation for discretely observed diffusion processes (with discussion)," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(3), pages 333-382, June.
    3. Hermann Singer, 2011. "Continuous-discrete state-space modeling of panel data with nonlinear filter algorithms," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 95(4), pages 375-413, December.
    4. Mark Girolami & Ben Calderhead, 2011. "Riemann manifold Langevin and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 73(2), pages 123-214, March.
    5. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 145-166.
    6. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
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