Closing the Aboriginal Education Gap in Canada: The Impact on Employment, GDP, and Labour Productivity

Despite improvements between 2001 and 2011, Canada’s Aboriginal population continues to underperform in the labour market. The Aboriginal educational attainment gap is often seen as the major source of these disparities. Using data from the 2011 National Household Survey, projections of Aboriginal population growth, and forecasts of aggregate economic conditions, we estimate the economic impact of closing the educational attainment gap by 2031. We find that the benefits of achieving such a feat could be very large, both for the Aboriginal population and for the country as a whole. Closing the education gap would raise Aboriginal employment by 90 thousand workers, GDP by $28.3 billion (2010 dollars) and Aboriginal employment income by $11,236 per worker in 2031. Labour productivity would increase by 0.03 percentage points per year over the 2011-2031 period. Assuming improvement occurs at a constant pace, we estimate that the cumulative gains to Canadian GDP would be as large as $261 billion (2010 dollars) over the 2011-2031 period.