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Политика Изоляции Населения Во Время Пандемии Covid-19: Какие Стратегии Выгодны Государству?

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Abstract

Пандемия COVID-19 вынудила органы государственного управления в разных странах принимать меры по сокращению социальных контактов между людьми - от мягкого стимулирования самоизоляции до строгих карантинных мер. Иногда ограничения вводились на государственном уровне, иногда - на региональном или муниципальном. В основе этих решений было стремление к балансу между сохранением как можно большего количества жизней и поддержанием благосостояния людей. В этой статье мы применяем теоретический инструментарий для анализа стратегий государства, которые могут считаться предпочтительными с точки зрения общественного благосостояния. Для этого мы используем "дилемму заключенного" и рассматриваем механизмы принятия индивидуальных решений о соблюдении изоляции. Мы показываем, что решение о том, облюдать или нет режим карантина, зависит как от индивидуальных предпочтений человека, так и от объективных факторов - тех потерь, которые несет для него изоляция, и вероятности получить необходимую и своевременную медицинскую помощь в случае болезни. Полученные выводы мы соотносим с реальными карантинными мерами, нашедшими применение в отдельных странах и/или регионах. В результате моделирования поведения индивидов в условиях возможности заражения COVID-19 мы приходим к выводу, что полная изоляция всех групп населения с точки зрения общественного благосостояния оказывается нецелесообразной, тогда как планирование карантинных мер, направленных на изолированные однородные группы населения, является более предпочтительной стратегией для государства.

Suggested Citation

  • Калинин А. М. & Засимова Л. С. & Колосницына М. Г. & Хоркина Н. А., 2020. "Политика Изоляции Населения Во Время Пандемии Covid-19: Какие Стратегии Выгодны Государству?," Вопросы государственного и муниципального управления // Public administration issues, НИУ ВШЭ, issue 4, pages 7-30.
    • Handle: RePEc:scn:vgmu00:2020:i:4:p:7-30
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Korinek, Anton & Bethune, Zachary, 2020. "COVID-19 Infection Externalities: Trading Off Lives vs. Livelihoods," CEPR Discussion Papers 14596, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Belot, Michèle & Choi, Syngjoo & Tripodi, Egon & van den Broek-Altenburg, Eline & Jamison, Julian C. & Papageorge, Nicholas W., 2020. "Unequal Consequences of COVID-19 across Age and Income: Representative Evidence from Six Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 13366, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
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