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Trends, Random Walks and Persistence: An Empirical Study of Disaggregated U.S. Industrial Production

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  • Krol, Robert

Abstract

Unit-root and variance-ratio tests are used to examine the trend properties and degree of persistence of industrial production in U.S. industries and comparable aggregates during the post-World War II period. The evidence from unit-root tests suggests that less than one-half of these industries have output that may be characterized as a random walk. The variance-ratio test results generally support this conclusion. Consistent with standard economic theory, fluctuations in durable-goods industries are less persistent than in nondurable goods industries. Finally, tests find relatively greater persistence in the aggregate industrial production data. Copyright 1992 by MIT Press.

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  • Krol, Robert, 1992. "Trends, Random Walks and Persistence: An Empirical Study of Disaggregated U.S. Industrial Production," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 154-159, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:74:y:1992:i:1:p:154-59
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    Cited by:

    1. Luis A. Gil-Alanaa, 2005. "Unit and fractional roots in the presence of abrupt changes with an application to the brazilian inflation rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 193-207, January.
    2. Franco Bevilacqua & Adriaan van Zon, 2004. "Random walks and non-linear paths in macroeconomic time series: some evidence and implications," Chapters, in: John Foster & Werner Hölzl (ed.), Applied Evolutionary Economics and Complex Systems, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Guglielmo Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2003. "Long memory and structural breaks in hyperinflation countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 27(2), pages 136-152, June.
    4. Robert Kirkby & Huong Ngoc Vu, 2024. "Impacts of Monetary Policy Shocks on Inflation and Output in New Zealand," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 100(329), pages 160-187, June.
    5. Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2003. "Testing of unit roots and other fractionally integrated hypotheses in the presence of structural breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 101-113, January.
    6. Shelley, Gary L. & Wallace, Frederick H., 1998. "Tests of the money-output relation using disaggregated data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 863-873.
    7. L. Achy, 2003. "Parity reversion persistence in real exchange rates: middle income country case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 541-553.
    8. Luis A. Gil‐Alana, 2004. "A joint test of fractional integration and structural breaks at a known period of time," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 691-700, September.
    9. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L. A. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2004. "Is the US fiscal deficit sustainable?: A fractionally integrated approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 501-526.
    10. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2003. "A Univariate Analysis of Unemployment and Inflation in Italy: A Fractionally Integrated Approach," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 23(2), November.
    11. Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
    12. Robert Socha & Piotr Wdowiński, 2018. "Crude oil price and speculative activity: a cointegration analysis," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 10(3), pages 263-304, September.
    13. Lee, Kevin, 1997. "Modelling economic growth in the UK: An econometric case for disaggregated sectoral analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 369-394, July.
    14. Atish R. Ghosh & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Geographical and Sectoral Shocks in the U.S. Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 6180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Asmaa Ahmed, 2005. "Random Walks in the Economic Dynamic Series," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 78-100.

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