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The Housing-led Growth Hypothesis Revisited

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  • Jie Chen
  • Feng Guo
  • Aiyong Zhu

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between housing investment and economic growth in China, utilising province-level data via recently developed panel unit root tests and panel co-integration analysis. The empirical results suggest a stable long-run relationship between housing investment, non-housing investment and GDP in China. In addition, the existence is demonstrated of bi-directional Granger causality between housing investment and GDP at the national level. The panel error correction model supports the hypothesis that housing investment appears to have a dual role, acting as both a driver and follower in China’s economic fluctuations. However, the impacts of housing investment on economic growth in three sub-regions are found to be strikingly different.

Suggested Citation

  • Jie Chen & Feng Guo & Aiyong Zhu, 2011. "The Housing-led Growth Hypothesis Revisited," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 48(10), pages 2049-2067, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:48:y:2011:i:10:p:2049-2067
    DOI: 10.1177/0042098010379281
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    Cited by:

    1. Xing Su & Zhu Qian, 2020. "State Intervention in Land Supply and Its Impact on Real Estate Investment in China: Evidence from Prefecture-Level Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-15, January.
    2. Chunping Liu & Zhirong Ou, 2021. "What determines China's housing price dynamics? New evidence from a DSGE‐VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3269-3305, July.
    3. Qianwei Ying & Danglun Luo & Jie Chen, 2013. "The Determinants of Homeownership Affordability among the ‘Sandwich Class’: Empirical Findings from Guangzhou, China," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 50(9), pages 1870-1888, July.
    4. Chunping Liu & Zhirong Ou, 2017. "What determines China's housing price dynamics? New evidence from a DSGE-VAR," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2017/04, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
    5. Huang, Yuting & Li, Qiang & Liow, Kim Hiang & Zhou, Xiaoxia, 2020. "Is Housing the Business Cycle? A Multiresolution Analysis for OECD Countries," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    6. Hyunjung Ji & Jeong Ahn & Jeffrey Chapman, 2016. "The role of intergovernmental aid in defining fiscal sustainability at the sub-national level," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(14), pages 3063-3081, November.
    7. Chen Zhu & Da Zhao & Zhiyi Qiu, 2019. "Internal and External Effect of Estate Investment upon Regional Innovation in China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(3), pages 513-530, February.
    8. Dasgupta,Basab & Lall,Somik V. & Lozano Gracia,Nancy, 2014. "Urbanization and housing investment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 115004, The World Bank.
    9. Chen, Jie, 2016. "Housing System and Urbanization in the People’s Republic of China," ADBI Working Papers 602, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    10. Yener Coskun & Christos Bouras & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "Multi-Horizon Financial and Housing Wealth Effects across the U.S. States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-20, January.
    11. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Yuanchen Yang, 2020. "Peak China Housing," NBER Working Papers 27697, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Kenneth Rogoff & Yuanchen Yang, 2021. "Has China's Housing Production Peaked?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(1), pages 1-31, January.
    13. Iris Claus & Les Oxley & Jie Chen & Xuehui Han, 2014. "The Evolution Of The Housing Market And Its Socioeconomic Impacts In The Post-Reform People'S Republic Of China: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 652-670, September.
    14. Cheng-Wen Lee & Shu-Hen Chiang & Zhong-Qin Wen, 2023. "Pursuing the Sustainability of Real Estate Market: The Case of Chinese Land Resources Diversification," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-19, March.
    15. Hongbo Wang & Dan Rickman, 2020. "Housing Price and Population Growth across China: The Role of Housing Supply," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 43(3), pages 203-228, May.

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