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The Housing-led Growth Hypothesis Revisited

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  • Jie Chen
  • Feng Guo
  • Aiyong Zhu

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between housing investment and economic growth in China, utilising province-level data via recently developed panel unit root tests and panel co-integration analysis. The empirical results suggest a stable long-run relationship between housing investment, non-housing investment and GDP in China. In addition, the existence is demonstrated of bi-directional Granger causality between housing investment and GDP at the national level. The panel error correction model supports the hypothesis that housing investment appears to have a dual role, acting as both a driver and follower in China’s economic fluctuations. However, the impacts of housing investment on economic growth in three sub-regions are found to be strikingly different.

Suggested Citation

  • Jie Chen & Feng Guo & Aiyong Zhu, 2011. "The Housing-led Growth Hypothesis Revisited," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 48(10), pages 2049-2067, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:48:y:2011:i:10:p:2049-2067
    DOI: 10.1177/0042098010379281
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    Cited by:

    1. Xing Su & Zhu Qian, 2020. "State Intervention in Land Supply and Its Impact on Real Estate Investment in China: Evidence from Prefecture-Level Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-15, January.
    2. Chunping Liu & Zhirong Ou, 2021. "What determines China's housing price dynamics? New evidence from a DSGE‐VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3269-3305, July.
    3. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Yuanchen Yang, 2020. "Peak China Housing," NBER Working Papers 27697, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Kenneth Rogoff & Yuanchen Yang, 2021. "Has China's Housing Production Peaked?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(1), pages 1-31, January.
    5. Qianwei Ying & Danglun Luo & Jie Chen, 2013. "The Determinants of Homeownership Affordability among the ‘Sandwich Class’: Empirical Findings from Guangzhou, China," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 50(9), pages 1870-1888, July.
    6. Chunping Liu & Zhirong Ou, 2017. "What determines China's housing price dynamics? New evidence from a DSGE-VAR," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2017/04, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
    7. Huang, Yuting & Li, Qiang & Liow, Kim Hiang & Zhou, Xiaoxia, 2020. "Is Housing the Business Cycle? A Multiresolution Analysis for OECD Countries," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    8. Iris Claus & Les Oxley & Jie Chen & Xuehui Han, 2014. "The Evolution Of The Housing Market And Its Socioeconomic Impacts In The Post-Reform People'S Republic Of China: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 652-670, September.
    9. Hyunjung Ji & Jeong Ahn & Jeffrey Chapman, 2016. "The role of intergovernmental aid in defining fiscal sustainability at the sub-national level," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(14), pages 3063-3081, November.
    10. Chen Zhu & Da Zhao & Zhiyi Qiu, 2019. "Internal and External Effect of Estate Investment upon Regional Innovation in China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(3), pages 513-530, February.
    11. Dasgupta,Basab & Lall,Somik V. & Lozano Gracia,Nancy, 2014. "Urbanization and housing investment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 115004, The World Bank.
    12. Cheng-Wen Lee & Shu-Hen Chiang & Zhong-Qin Wen, 2023. "Pursuing the Sustainability of Real Estate Market: The Case of Chinese Land Resources Diversification," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-19, March.
    13. Chen, Jie, 2016. "Housing System and Urbanization in the People’s Republic of China," ADBI Working Papers 602, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    14. Yener Coskun & Christos Bouras & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "Multi-Horizon Financial and Housing Wealth Effects across the U.S. States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-20, January.
    15. Hongbo Wang & Dan Rickman, 2020. "Housing Price and Population Growth across China: The Role of Housing Supply," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 43(3), pages 203-228, May.

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