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Terrorist attack assessment: Paris November 2015 and Brussels March 2016

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  • Ruiz Estrada, Mario Arturo
  • Koutronas, Evangelos

Abstract

This paper intends to establish conceptual foundations of analyzing the economic dimensions of terrorism. The economic impact of terrorist attack model (EITA-Model) attempts to estimate the optimum number of potential terrorist incidents that can influence the regional economic performance. The model suggests a three-phase of terrorist operations: (i) the terrorist group attack setting; (ii) the terrorist group attack behavior; and (iii) the post-effect of the terrorist group attack. The model introduces five alternative risk indicators for the estimation of terrorist attacks: (i) the maximum level of terrorist group attack targets (φ′); (ii) terrorist group attack destruction (−π); (iii) economic terrorist wear (W); (iv) economic desgrowth (−δ); and (v) the multidimensional graphical sub-strategic national security sector analysis. The model investigates the recent terrorist attacks in Paris November 2015 and in Brussels March 2016.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruiz Estrada, Mario Arturo & Koutronas, Evangelos, 2016. "Terrorist attack assessment: Paris November 2015 and Brussels March 2016," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 553-571.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:38:y:2016:i:3:p:553-571
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2016.04.001
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    2. Mnasri, Ayman & Nechi, Salem, 2016. "Impact of terrorist attacks on stock market volatility in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 184-202.
    3. Benchimol, Jonathan & El-Shagi, Makram, 2020. "Forecast performance in times of terrorism," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 386-402.
    4. Fatma Ben Moussa & Mariem Talbi, 2019. "Stock Market Reaction to Terrorist Attacks and Political Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from the Tunisian Stock Exchange," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(3), pages 48-64.
    5. Muhammad Imran & Mengyun Wu & Shuibin Gu & Shah Saud & Muhammad Abbas, 2019. "Influence of economic and non-economic factors on firm level equity premium: Evidence from Pakistan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(3), pages 1774-1785.
    6. Estrada, Mario Arturo Ruiz & Koutronas, Evangelos, 2022. "The impact of the Russian Aggression against Ukraine on the Russia-EU Trade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 599-616.
    7. Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada & Alam Khan & Donghyun Park, 2018. "The economic cost of the Islamic State on the Syrian and Iraqi economies," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1707-1730, July.
    8. Enrico Quagliarini & Fabio Fatiguso & Michele Lucesoli & Gabriele Bernardini & Elena Cantatore, 2021. "Risk Reduction Strategies against Terrorist Acts in Urban Built Environments: Towards Sustainable and Human-Centred Challenges," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-29, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic modeling; Terrorism; France; Belgium; Economic; Policy modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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