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Mixed Logit Estimation of Radical Islamic Terrorism in Europe and North America

Author

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  • Carlos Pestana Barros

    (Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, Technical University of Lisbon, Portugal)

  • Isabel Proença

    (Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, Technical University of Lisbon, Portugal)

Abstract

This article estimates what characteristics (e.g., location, number of casualties, and type of attack) are associated with an Islamic terrorist attack. This is established by identifying the significant determinants of the probability that an attack had been carried out by Islamic terrorists. For Europe, the United States, and Canada, the analysis employs ITERATE (International Terrorism: Attributes of Terrorist Events) data from October 1979 to December 2002 to ascertain the significant characteristics of Islamic terrorist attacks. A random-parameter logit model is used to analyze the probability of such attacks, taking into account the heterogeneity of the sample data. This model outperforms the standard logit model. Some policy implications are presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Pestana Barros & Isabel Proença, 2005. "Mixed Logit Estimation of Radical Islamic Terrorism in Europe and North America," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 49(2), pages 298-314, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:49:y:2005:i:2:p:298-314
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002704272829
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Horácio C. Faustino & Isabel Proença, 2015. "Immigration And Intra-Industry Trade: The Relevance Of Language, Qualification And Economic Integration," Portuguese Journal of Management Studies, ISEG, Universidade de Lisboa, vol. 0(1), pages 3-18.
    6. Chen Wang & Vicki M. Bier, 2013. "Expert Elicitation of Adversary Preferences Using Ordinal Judgments," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 61(2), pages 372-385, April.
    7. Jülide Yildirim & Nadir Öcal, 2013. "Analysing The Determinants Of Terrorism In Turkey Using Geographically Weighted Regression," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 195-209, June.
    8. Carlos Pestana Barros & Isabel Proenca & Joao Ricardo Faria & Luis Gil-Alana, 2007. "Are Usa Citizens At Risk Of Terrorism In Europe?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(6), pages 495-507.

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