IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/toueco/v29y2023i4p906-928.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The contagion effect of COVID-19-induced uncertainty on US tourism sector: Evidence from time-varying granger causality test

Author

Listed:
  • Oguzhan Cepni
  • Tarik Dogru
  • Ozgur Ozdemir

Abstract

This study investigates the effect of COVID-19-induced uncertainty on the overall stock market and the stock performance of the tourism and hospitality industry and its subsectors utilizing a novel time-varying robust Granger causality test. The results show that the COVID-19 pandemic–induced uncertainty has an adverse impact on the overall economy, tourism and hospitality industry, and subsectors of tourism and hospitality. However, the impact of COVID-19 pandemic–induced uncertainty is more significant in the tourism and hospitality industry and its subsectors. In particular, hotels sector has experienced the largest impact from the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by restaurants and airline sectors, respectively. Research and practical implications are discussed. JEL Classification: C1, C5, F2, G11, G17, G41

Suggested Citation

  • Oguzhan Cepni & Tarik Dogru & Ozgur Ozdemir, 2023. "The contagion effect of COVID-19-induced uncertainty on US tourism sector: Evidence from time-varying granger causality test," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(4), pages 906-928, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:29:y:2023:i:4:p:906-928
    DOI: 10.1177/13548166221077633
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/13548166221077633
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/13548166221077633?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rossi, Barbara, 2005. "Optimal Tests For Nested Model Selection With Underlying Parameter Instability," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(5), pages 962-990, October.
    2. Dunia Rassy & Richard D. Smith, 2013. "The economic impact of H1N1 on Mexico's tourist and pork sectors," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(7), pages 824-834, July.
    3. Faruk Balli & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2018. "A tale of two shocks: What do we learn from the impacts of economic policy uncertainties on tourism?," Post-Print hal-02044848, HAL.
    4. Barbara Rossi & Yiru Wang, 2019. "Vector autoregressive-based Granger causality test in the presence of instabilities," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 19(4), pages 883-899, December.
    5. Karabulut, Gokhan & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Demir, Ender & Doker, Asli Cansin, 2020. "How pandemics affect tourism: International evidence," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    6. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    7. Demiralay, Sercan, 2020. "Political uncertainty and the us tourism index returns," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    8. Aruoba, S. BoraÄŸan & Diebold, Francis X. & Scotti, Chiara, 2009. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 417-427.
    9. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Kyle J. Kost & Marco C. Sammon & Tasaneeya Viratyosin, 2020. "The Unprecedented Stock Market Impact of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 26945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Sharma, Abhinav & Nicolau, Juan Luis, 2020. "An open market valuation of the effects of COVID-19 on the travel and tourism industry," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    11. Das, Debojyoti & Dutta, Anupam & Bhadra, Amit & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "Role of presidential uncertainties on the hotel industry," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    12. Demir, Ender & Gozgor, Giray, 2018. "Does economic policy uncertainty affect Tourism?," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 15-17.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bastidon, Cécile & Jawadi, Fredj, 2024. "Trade fragmentation and volatility-of-volatility networks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    2. Ubay Pérez-Granja & Ascensión Andina-Díaz & Juan Luis Jiménez, 2024. "Volcanic eruptions and tourism prosocial consumption," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(8), pages 1973-2001, December.
    3. Martín Cicowiez & Natalia Porto & Manuela Cerimelo, 2024. "Short- and long-term effects of domestic tourism promotion in Argentina after COVID-19," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(7), pages 1880-1899, November.
    4. Augusto Hasman & Stefano Borzillo, 2024. "The hospitality industry and COVID-19: Stock price crash risk," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(6), pages 1634-1641, September.
    5. Peng Yang & Haiyan Song & Long Wen & Han Liu, 2024. "Modeling and forecasting listed tourism firms’ risk in China using a trend asymmetric GARCH-MIDAS model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(6), pages 1404-1422, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Omneya Abdelsalam & Ahmet Faruk Aysan & Oguzhan Cepni & Mustafa Disli, 2023. "The spillover effects of the COVID-19 pandemic: Which subsectors of tourism have been affected more?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(2), pages 559-567, March.
    2. Akyildirim, Erdinc & Cepni, Oguzhan & Pham, Linh & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2022. "How connected is the agricultural commodity market to the news-based investor sentiment?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    3. Canh Phuc Nguyen & Su Dinh Thanh & Bach Nguyen, 2022. "Economic uncertainty and tourism consumption," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(4), pages 920-941, June.
    4. Pham, Linh & Cepni, Oguzhan, 2022. "Extreme directional spillovers between investor attention and green bond markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 186-210.
    5. Çepni, Oğuzhan & Gül, Selçuk & Hacıhasanoğlu, Yavuz Selim & Yılmaz, Muhammed Hasan, 2020. "Global uncertainties and portfolio flow dynamics of the BRICS countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    6. Qin, Yun & Chen, Jinyu & Dong, Xuesong, 2021. "Oil prices, policy uncertainty and travel and leisure stocks in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    7. Gizem Uzuner & Sudeshna Ghosh, 2021. "Do pandemics have an asymmetric effect on tourism in Italy?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(5), pages 1561-1579, October.
    8. Khandokar Istiak, 2021. "Risk, uncertainty and the tourism sector of North Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(2), pages 329-342, June.
    9. Rufei Zhang & Haizhen Zhang & Qingzhu Fan & Wang Gao & Xue Luo & Shixiong Yang, 2022. "Partisan Conflict, National Security Policy Uncertainty and Tourism," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-22, August.
    10. Hassan F Gholipour & Robin Nunkoo & Behzad Foroughi & Hassan Kalantari Daronkola, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty, consumer confidence in major economies and outbound tourism to African countries," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(4), pages 979-994, June.
    11. Canh Phuc Nguyen & Christophe Schinckus & Thanh Dinh Su, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and demand for international tourism: An empirical study," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 1415-1430, December.
    12. Umer Shahzad & Muhammad Ramzan & Muhammad Ibrahim Shah & Buhari DoÄŸan & Ahdi Noomen Ajmi, 2022. "Analyzing the Nexus Between Geopolitical Risk, Policy Uncertainty, and Tourist Arrivals: Evidence From the United States," Evaluation Review, , vol. 46(3), pages 266-295, June.
    13. Chaker Aloui & Hela Ben Hamida & Besma Hkiri, 2021. "Democratic transition, political risk, economic instability, and tourist inflows: The case of Tunisia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 1157-1165, August.
    14. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Stavroula Yfanti & Menelaos Karanasos & Jiaying Wu, 2024. "Financial integration and European tourism stocks," Chapters, in: Guglielmo M. Caporale (ed.), Handbook of Financial Integration, chapter 21, pages 495-538, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Yfanti, Stavroula & Karanasos, Menelaos & Zopounidis, Constantin & Christopoulos, Apostolos, 2023. "Corporate credit risk counter-cyclical interdependence: A systematic analysis of cross-border and cross-sector correlation dynamics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(2), pages 813-831.
    16. James E Payne & Saban Nazlioglu & Andrea Mervar, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and international tourist arrivals: A disaggregated analysis of the Croatian Adriatic coast," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(4), pages 986-1004, June.
    17. Nicholas Apergis & Konstantinos Gavriilidis & Rangan Gupta, 2023. "Does climate policy uncertainty affect tourism demand? Evidence from time-varying causality tests," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(6), pages 1484-1498, September.
    18. James E Payne & Nicholas Apergis, 2022. "The influence of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk on US citizens overseas air passenger travel by regional destination," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(5), pages 1333-1341, August.
    19. Oguzhan Cepni, Duc Khuong Nguyen, and Ahmet Sensoy, 2022. "News Media and Attention Spillover across Energy Markets: A Powerful Predictor of Crude Oil Futures Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
    20. Cem Işık & Ercan Sirakaya-Turk & Serdar Ongan, 2020. "Testing the efficacy of the economic policy uncertainty index on tourism demand in USMCA: Theory and evidence," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(8), pages 1344-1357, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pandemic; COVID-19; uncertainty; tourism; time-varying causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:29:y:2023:i:4:p:906-928. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.