IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/toueco/v29y2023i2p488-512.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Building a system dynamics model to analyze scenarios of COVID-19 policymaking in tourism-dependent developing countries: A case study of Cambodia

Author

Listed:
  • Shuangjin Li
  • Shuang Ma
  • Junyi Zhang

Abstract

To control the COVID-19 pandemic, various policies have been implemented to restrict the mobility of people. Such policies, however, have resulted in huge damages to many economic sectors, especially the tourism sector and its auxiliary services. Focusing on Cambodia, this study presents a system dynamics (SD) model for assessing and selecting effective policy responses to contain the spread of COVID-19, while maintaining tourism development. Policies targeted in this study include international and domestic transportation bans, quarantine policy, tourist-centered protection measures, and enterprise-led protection measures. Two types of scenario analyses are conducted: one targets each policy separately and the other combines different policies. Among all scenarios, quarantine policy is evaluated to be the most effective policy as it balances the containment of the spread of COVID-19 and support for tourism development. This study provides a new way of guiding COVID-19 policymaking and exploring effective policies in the context of tourism.

Suggested Citation

  • Shuangjin Li & Shuang Ma & Junyi Zhang, 2023. "Building a system dynamics model to analyze scenarios of COVID-19 policymaking in tourism-dependent developing countries: A case study of Cambodia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(2), pages 488-512, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:29:y:2023:i:2:p:488-512
    DOI: 10.1177/13548166211059080
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/13548166211059080
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/13548166211059080?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John E. Ataguba, 2020. "COVID-19 Pandemic, a War to be Won: Understanding its Economic Implications for Africa," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 325-328, June.
    2. Brahmbhatt, Milan & Dutta, Arindam, 2008. "On SARS type economic effects during infectious disease outbreaks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4466, The World Bank.
    3. Karabulut, Gokhan & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Demir, Ender & Doker, Asli Cansin, 2020. "How pandemics affect tourism: International evidence," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    4. Silva, Petrônio C.L. & Batista, Paulo V.C. & Lima, Hélder S. & Alves, Marcos A. & Guimarães, Frederico G. & Silva, Rodrigo C.P., 2020. "COVID-ABS: An agent-based model of COVID-19 epidemic to simulate health and economic effects of social distancing interventions," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    5. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2021. "The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 1-30, Summer.
    6. Zhang, Junyi, 2020. "Transport policymaking that accounts for COVID-19 and future public health threats: A PASS approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 405-418.
    7. Panayotis Christidis & Aris Christodoulou, 2020. "The Predictive Capacity of Air Travel Patterns during the Global Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Risk, Uncertainty and Randomness," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-15, May.
    8. Nakamura, Hiroki & Managi, Shunsuke, 2020. "Airport risk of importation and exportation of the COVID-19 pandemic," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 40-47.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cui, Qi & He, Ling & Liu, Yu & Zheng, Yanting & Wei, Wei & Yang, Bo & Zhou, Meifang, 2021. "The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on China’s transport sectors based on the CGE model coupled with a decomposition analysis approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 103-115.
    2. Sadananda Prusty & Anubha & Saurabh Gupta, 2021. "On the Road to Recovery: The Role of Post-Lockdown Stimulus Package," FIIB Business Review, , vol. 11(2), pages 206-224, June.
    3. Nano Prawoto & Eko Priyo Purnomo & Abitassha Az Zahra, 2020. "The Impacts of Covid-19 Pandemic on Socio-Economic Mobility in Indonesia," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(3), pages 57-71.
    4. Yang, Yang & Liu, Qing & Chang, Chia-Hsun, 2023. "China-Europe freight transportation under the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic and government restriction measures," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    5. Samba Diop & Simplice A. Asongu, 2023. "The Covid-19 Pandemic and the New Poor in Africa: The Straw That Broke the Camel’s Back," Forum for Social Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(2), pages 143-154, April.
    6. Thomas Ameyaw-Brobbey & Dennis Senam Amable, 2023. "A Micro-assessment of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Realities on Small-Scale Vendors in Ghana: China as a Leveraging Resource," Insight on Africa, , vol. 15(1), pages 23-45, January.
    7. Sun, Xiaoqian & Wandelt, Sebastian & Zheng, Changhong & Zhang, Anming, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic and air transportation: Successfully navigating the paper hurricane," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    8. Nana Liu & Zeshui Xu & Marinko Skare, 2021. "The research on COVID-19 and economy from 2019 to 2020: analysis from the perspective of bibliometrics," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 217-268, June.
    9. Moritz Kersting & Andreas Bossert & Leif Sörensen & Benjamin Wacker & Jan Chr. Schlüter, 2021. "Predicting effectiveness of countermeasures during the COVID-19 outbreak in South Africa using agent-based simulation," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, December.
    10. Francis Kuriakose & Deepa Kylasam Iyer, 2024. "Initial conditions and cross-country macroeconomic impact during Covid-19," International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 19(1), pages 4-27.
    11. Yothin Jinjarak & Ilan Noy & Quy Ta, 2022. "Pandemics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the 1968 H3N2 Influenza," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 73-93, March.
    12. Klona, Maria, 2021. "The Days After COVID-19: A Meta-Analysis on the Impact of Epidemics and Pandemics on Long-Term Macro-Economic Performance," American Business Review, Pompea College of Business, University of New Haven, vol. 24(1), pages 188-224, May.
    13. Zhang, Junyi & Hayashi, Yoshitsugu, 2022. "Research frontier of COVID-19 and passenger transport: A focus on policymaking," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 78-88.
    14. Zhang, Qiang & Tong, Qiong, 2021. "The economic impacts of traffic consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic in China: A CGE analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 330-337.
    15. Maliszewska,Maryla & Mattoo,Aaditya & Van Der Mensbrugghe,Dominique, 2020. "The Potential Impact of COVID-19 on GDP and Trade : A Preliminary Assessment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9211, The World Bank.
    16. Betarelli Junior, Admir Antonio & Faria, Weslem Rodrigues & Proque, Andressa Lemes & Perobelli, Fernando Salgueiro & de Almeida Vale, Vinicius, 2021. "COVID-19, public agglomerations and economic effects: Assessing the recovery time of passenger transport services in Brazil," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 254-272.
    17. Lucian Liviu ALBU & Ciprian Ion PREDA & Radu LUPU, 2020. "Estimates on the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the economy," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting 200518, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
    18. Rzeszutek Marcin & Szyszka Adam & Okoń Szymon, 2023. "Behavioral biases in corporate risk management and investment decisions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 59(1), pages 70-76, March.
    19. Lucian Liviu ALBU & Ciprian Ion PREDA & Radu LUPU & Carmen Elena DOBROTĂ & George Marian CĂLIN & Claudia M. BOGHICEVICI, 2020. "Estimates of Dynamics of the Covid19 Pandemic and of its Impact on the Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-17, July.
    20. A. G. Aganbegyan & A. N. Klepach & B. N. Porfiryev & M. N. Uzyakov & A. A. Shirov, 2020. "Post-Pandemic Recovery: The Russian Economy and the Transition to Sustainable Social and Economic Development," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(6), pages 599-605, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:29:y:2023:i:2:p:488-512. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.