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Estimates on the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the economy

Author

Listed:
  • Lucian Liviu ALBU

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

  • Ciprian Ion PREDA

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

  • Radu LUPU

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

Economic growth forecasts have been revised downwards in most countries, but the incertitude regarding the duration or the evolution of the crisis persist. Under the pressure of the Covid-19 pandemic expansion, today it is supposed that a huge global crisis to follow in all fields (humanitarian, social, economic). The pandemic impact is difficult to be evaluated until it will be stopped or at least its peak will be reached. As a contribution to such work, we propose an estimation-simulation model, as an alternative to other models coming from probabilistic, genetic algorithms or other approach. In order to analyse the dynamics of the spread of epidemic among the population, we built a model with differential equations for a special time-function of logistic type, from which resulted certain key-values and four phases in its evolution. Moreover, by simulating the daily dynamics of pandemic at three levels (world, EU, and Romania) we estimated the impact of pandemic on the economic growth to the end of this year.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucian Liviu ALBU & Ciprian Ion PREDA & Radu LUPU, 2020. "Estimates on the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the economy," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting 200518, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:wpiecf:200518
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Claudiu-Cătălin MUNTEANU, 2020. "Food Insecurity And Pandemics: Addressing The Food Shock Of Covid-19 In Romania," Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Institute of Agricultural Economics, vol. 17(2), pages 265-273.
    3. Karime Chahuán-Jiménez & Rolando Rubilar-Torrealba & Hanns de la Fuente-Mella, 2021. "Market Openness and Its Relationship to Connecting Markets Due to COVID-19," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-12, October.
    4. Chopdar, Prasanta Kr & Paul, Justin & Prodanova, Jana, 2022. "Mobile shoppers’ response to Covid-19 phobia, pessimism and smartphone addiction: Does social influence matter?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    5. Ayhan Kuloğlu, 2021. "Covıd-19 Krizinin Petrol Fiyatları Üzerine Etkisi," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, vol. 6(3), pages 710-727.
    6. Corina Ana Borcosi, 2021. "Knowledge Management, Useful System For An Economy In The Covid-19 Pandemic," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1, pages 190-196, February.
    7. Cecilia ALEXANDRI & Bianca PAUNA & Corina SAMAN, 2020. "The Relationship Between Total Factor Productivity and Subsidies in the Case of Romanian Farms," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 85-98, December.
    8. Lukas Cibik & Leon Richvalsky, 2023. "The Economy of EU Member Countries in 2020 from Perspective of Magic Square," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 8, pages 3-21.
    9. Vaijanath Babshetti & Jyothi E. Singh & Prakash B. Yaragol, 2022. "The Impact of COVID-19 on the Socio-economic Indicators of the Selected Asian Countries," India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs, , vol. 78(1), pages 28-46, March.
    10. Huixin Gong & Yaomin Zheng & Jinlian Shi & Jiaxin Wang & Huize Yang & Sinead Praise A. Sibalo & Amani Mwamlima & Jingyu Li & Shuting Xu & Dandan Xu & Xiankai Huang, 2023. "An Examination of the Spatial Spillover Effects of Tourism Transportation on Sustainable Development from a Multiple-Indicator Cross-Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-20, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; Logistic model; Pandemic Phases; Inflection; Concave Trajectory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

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