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GDP volatility implication of tourism volatility in South Africa: A time-varying approach

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  • Chien-Chiang Lee

    (Nanchang University, China)

  • Godwin O Olasehinde-Williams

    (Nanchang University, China)

  • Ifedolapo Olabisi Olanipekun

    (Adeyemi College of Education, Nigeria)

Abstract

The importance of tourism as one of the bedrocks of economic growth in South Africa suggests that volatility in the sector may have dire consequences. We therefore empirically analyse the impact of tourism volatility (TV) on the gross domestic product (GDP) volatility of the country, using time-varying approaches that treat the parameter estimations as functions of time, thereby overcoming the challenge posed by parameter instabilities, non-linearities, non-stationarity, regime shifts and time variations. We find that TV significantly aggravates GDP volatility (GDPV) in South Africa. The impact varies from year to year and is greatest during the periods characterized by economic turbulence and crime and violence against foreigners. The size of the coefficients has been on a steady increase over time, reflecting the growing importance of tourism and TV to the South African economy. We also find that TV is a significant predictor of GDPV in the country. We strongly recommend that policymakers pay serious attention to economic happenings around the world since TV is one of the channels through which global economic crises affect the South African economy. We also recommend that the minimization of crime and social disorder should form an essential component of tourism development and promotion strategy in South Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Chien-Chiang Lee & Godwin O Olasehinde-Williams & Ifedolapo Olabisi Olanipekun, 2022. "GDP volatility implication of tourism volatility in South Africa: A time-varying approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(2), pages 435-450, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:28:y:2022:i:2:p:435-450
    DOI: 10.1177/1354816620970001
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    Cited by:

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    2. Liang, Chao & Xia, Zhenglan & Lai, Xiaodong & Wang, Lu, 2022. "Natural gas volatility prediction: Fresh evidence from extreme weather and extended GARCH-MIDAS-ES model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    3. Chien-Ming Wang & Su-Lan Pan & Alastair M. Morrison & Tsung-Pao Wu, 2022. "The dynamic linkages among outbound tourism, economic growth, and international trade: empirical evidence from China," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(11), pages 1-18, November.
    4. Cunado, Juncal & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & de Gracia, Fernando Perez & Hardik, Marfatia, 2023. "Dynamic spillovers across precious metals and oil realized volatilities: Evidence from quantile extended joint connectedness measures," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    5. Narasingha Das & Partha Gangopadhyay & Cem Işık & Rafael Alvarado & Munir Ahmad, 2024. "Do volatilities in tourism arrivals and foreign aids matter for GDP volatility in Cambodia? Partial and vector coherence wavelet models," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(6), pages 1624-1633, September.

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