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Effect of terrorism on demand for tourism in Kenya

Author

Listed:
  • Steven Buigut

    (American University in Dubai, UAE)

  • Djesika D. Amendah

    (African Population and Health Research Center, Kenya)

Abstract

This article uses a dynamic panel data model to analyse the effects of terrorism on demand for tourism in Kenya. We use annual data from 2010 to 2013 for a widely dispersed set of 124 countries of origin covering Europe, Asia, the Americas and Africa. The result suggests that a 1% increase in fatalities significantly reduces tourist arrivals by about 0.13%. This translates to a reduction of about 2507.5 visitors per year and roughly 157.1 million Kenya Shillings lost in tourism revenue per year for every one unit increase in fatality. Other proxies for terrorism, such as incidence or casualties, have a similar effect, indicating the robustness of the results. On the other hand, previous visits have a strong and positive effect on the level of current arrivals.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven Buigut & Djesika D. Amendah, 2016. "Effect of terrorism on demand for tourism in Kenya," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(5), pages 928-938, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:22:y:2016:i:5:p:928-938
    DOI: 10.5367/te.2015.0467
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Mudassar Hasan & Muhammad Abubakr Naeem & Muhammad Arif & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Safwan Mohd Nor, 2020. "Geopolitical Risk and Tourism Stocks of Emerging Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-21, November.
    4. Armand Viljoen & Andrea Saayman & Melville Saayman, 2019. "Determinants influencing inbound arrivals to Africa," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(6), pages 856-883, September.
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    6. Manuel González-Gómez, 2022. "European outbound tourism expansion on the islands of Cape Verde," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(4), pages 1129-1150, June.
    7. Georges Harb & Charbel Bassil, 2020. "Terrorism and inbound tourism: Does immigration have a moderating effect?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(3), pages 500-518, May.
    8. Schmude Jürgen & Karl Marion & Weber Florian, 2020. "Tourism and Terrorism: Economic impact of terrorist attacks on the tourism industry. The example of the destination of Paris," ZFW – Advances in Economic Geography, De Gruyter, vol. 64(2), pages 88-102, June.
    9. Chukwuemeka Valentine Okolo & Jun Wen & Kibir Kolani, 2024. "Research Assessment on the Extreme Social Events in Africa—Evidence from a Bibliometric Analysis Using Web of Science and CiteSpace," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(3), pages 11449-11494, September.
    10. María Santana-Gallego & Johan Fourie, 2022. "Tourism falls apart: How insecurity affects African tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(4), pages 995-1008, June.
    11. Koo, Tay T.R. & Lim, Christine & Dobruszkes, Frédéric, 2017. "Causality in direct air services and tourism demand," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 67-77.
    12. Xueying Huang & Yuanjun Han & Xuhong Gong & Xiangyan Liu, 2020. "Does the belt and road initiative stimulate China’s inbound tourist market? An empirical study using the gravity model with a DID method," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(2), pages 299-323, March.
    13. Ahmed Muhamad Omer & Mehmet Yeşiltaş, 2020. "“Modeling the impact of wars and terrorism on tourism demand in Kurdistan region of Iraq”," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 19(3), pages 301-322, September.

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